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Brown-Forman (BF.B) Is Up 5.1% After Q2 Sales And Earnings Decline - Has The Bull Case Changed?

Simply Wall St · 1d ago
  • Brown-Forman Corporation has reported past results for the fiscal second quarter ended October 31, 2025, with sales falling to US$1,036 million and net income to US$224 million, down from US$1,095 million and US$258 million a year earlier.
  • The drop in both quarterly and six-month earnings per share, despite product launches like Jack Daniel’s Blackberry gaining traction, is sharpening investor focus on softer trends in core developed markets.
  • We’ll now examine how this earnings slowdown, especially the year-over-year decline in sales and net income, reshapes Brown-Forman’s investment narrative.

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Brown-Forman Investment Narrative Recap

To own Brown-Forman, you need to believe its brands and premium focus can offset pressure in mature spirits markets over time. The latest quarter’s softer sales and earnings confirm that weaker developed-market demand remains the key near term risk, while the most important catalyst is whether innovation and international growth can stabilize overall volumes. This earnings slowdown reinforces, rather than changes, that core investment debate.

Among recent announcements, the 2% dividend increase in November stands out against the backdrop of declining first half earnings, suggesting management still sees the current profit level as supportable. For investors watching near term catalysts, that dividend move sits alongside product launches like Jack Daniel’s Blackberry and New Mix RTDs as the company leans on brand extensions and pricing to offset sluggish developed-market trends.

Yet for all of this, the bigger issue investors should be aware of is how persistent declines in key developed markets could...

Read the full narrative on Brown-Forman (it's free!)

Brown-Forman's narrative projects $4.1 billion revenue and $870.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 1.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $26 million earnings increase from $844.0 million today.

Uncover how Brown-Forman's forecasts yield a $30.91 fair value, a 3% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

BF.B Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
BF.B Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025

Nine members of the Simply Wall St Community value Brown-Forman between about US$4.22 and US$42.19 per share, highlighting sharply different expectations. When you set those views against the risk of ongoing volume and consumption declines in core developed spirits markets, it becomes even more important to compare several perspectives on what could shape the company’s future performance.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Brown-Forman - why the stock might be worth as much as 40% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Brown-Forman Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.