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Is Persistent Insider Buying Amid Lower Estimates Altering The Investment Case For Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)?

Simply Wall St · 2d ago
  • Arbor Realty Trust recently drew attention after Director William Green bought 12,800 shares on November 28, 2025, adding to a year-long pattern of insider purchases with no reported insider sales.
  • At the same time, analysts have lowered earnings estimates for the current and next fiscal years, highlighting a tension between insider confidence and market caution around Arbor Realty Trust’s outlook.
  • We’ll now examine how this steady insider buying interest may influence Arbor Realty Trust’s existing investment narrative and risk‑reward profile.

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Arbor Realty Trust Investment Narrative Recap

To hold Arbor Realty Trust, you need to believe its multifamily and commercial real estate lending platform can keep generating enough cash flow to support its dividend and balance sheet as conditions evolve. The latest insider buying, combined with lowered earnings estimates, does not materially change the near term catalyst, which is management’s ability to stabilize earnings, or the key risk around how sustainable current payout levels are if profit pressure persists.

The recent decision to reset the common dividend from US$0.43 to US$0.30 per quarter is the most relevant development alongside this insider activity, because it directly reflects the earnings drag from repositioning assets and softer agency volumes. For investors, that dividend reset sits at the heart of Arbor’s risk reward trade off, especially as earnings estimates edge down and the trust continues to lean on its agency and structured finance franchises to support future distributions.

Yet investors should be aware that the sustainability of Arbor’s dividend could depend heavily on how its earnings trajectory evolves...

Read the full narrative on Arbor Realty Trust (it's free!)

Arbor Realty Trust's narrative projects $227.2 million revenue and $219.3 million earnings by 2028. This implies a 28.7% yearly revenue decline and a $4.0 million earnings decrease from $223.3 million today.

Uncover how Arbor Realty Trust's forecasts yield a $12.00 fair value, a 32% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

ABR Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
ABR Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025

Nine Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Arbor Realty Trust span roughly US$1.88 to US$16.81, showing how far apart views on intrinsic value can be. Against that backdrop, the combination of a reduced common dividend and softer earnings expectations gives you a concrete starting point to weigh those contrasting opinions against Arbor’s actual cash generation and risk profile.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Arbor Realty Trust - why the stock might be worth as much as 85% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Arbor Realty Trust Narrative

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.