Markets bet on whether there will be more than 250,000 government employees cut before Jan 2026

Barchart · 11/29/2025 03:22

Kalshi has reported 4,797 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will there be more than 250000 government employees cut before Jan 2026?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 18% chance for "More than 250,000", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 18% probability.

If there are more than 250,000 federal employees no longer working, relative to the January 2025 employee count before January 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 432,027 transactions since it was first opened on November 12, 2024. There are 117,464 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 5,422,197 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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