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How Viasat's (VSAT) Potential Defense Division Split Is Shaping Its Investment Story

Simply Wall St · 11/27/2025 10:28
  • In the past week, JPMorgan upgraded Viasat after the company highlighted it is evaluating a potential separation of its Defense and Advanced Technologies division, a move also championed by activist investors earlier this year.
  • This review comes alongside operational progress, including new fleet-wide connectivity partnerships and the launch of the ViaSat-3 F2 satellite, reflecting momentum in both commercial and defense-related business segments.
  • We'll examine how Viasat's exploration of a possible business split could influence its investment narrative and future growth prospects.

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Viasat Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Viasat shareholder, you need to believe in the company's ability to execute on its vision of global high-speed connectivity while overcoming near-term challenges from heavy capital investments and ongoing losses. The recent board appointment and strategic review of splitting the Defense and Advanced Technologies segment are meaningful, but the most important short-term catalyst remains the ramp-up of ViaSat-3 bandwidth and new commercial partnerships; the biggest risk continues to be pressure on free cash flow from large capital expenditures, which the board changes do not appear to materially impact.

Among recent announcements, the launch of the ViaSat-3 F2 satellite stands out, as this event adds substantial bandwidth capacity and is directly tied to Viasat’s ability to deliver on new and existing customer contracts, thus feeding into growth catalysts like expanded service in in-flight connectivity and mobility markets.

However, against this momentum, it is important for investors to remain mindful of the company’s still elevated capital spending requirements and the potential knock-on effects these could have on...

Read the full narrative on Viasat (it's free!)

Viasat's narrative projects $5.0 billion revenue and $534.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 2.9% yearly revenue growth and a $1.13 billion increase in earnings from -$598.5 million.

Uncover how Viasat's forecasts yield a $36.25 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

VSAT Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
VSAT Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

Eight members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate Viasat's fair value from US$10 up to US$99, capturing a wide range of outlooks. Heavy ongoing capital expenditures remain a top concern, underlining why market participants may disagree on the company’s ability to achieve sustainable earnings growth.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on Viasat - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.