Guosheng Securities: Reiterating the long-term trend of Xiaomi Group-W (01810) “buy” ratings without changing the promotion of high-end

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report stating that it gave Xiaomi Group-W (01810) a target price of HK$52, reaffirming the “buy” rating. Third-quarter results were strong. Revenue increased 22.3% year over year to 113.1 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit reached a record high of 11.3 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 80.9% year on year. The growth was mainly driven by the high-end mobile phone strategy and the automotive business. Among them, Xiaomi delivered 109,000 units, and the automotive and AI innovation business achieved profit in a single quarter for the first time. The company's “Full Ecosystem of People and Cars” strategy continues to advance. The number of connected devices on the AIoT platform has exceeded 1 billion, and the long-term growth potential is remarkable.

Guosheng Securities's main views are as follows:

Performance performance

The Xiaomi Group achieved revenue of 113.1 billion yuan in 2025Q3, an increase of 22.3% over the previous year. Among them, the mobile phone/IoT/Internet/automobile and AI business revenue was approximately 46 billion yuan/27.6 billion yuan/9.4 billion yuan/29 billion yuan respectively. In the current quarter, the adjusted net profit of the Xiaomi Group reached a record high of 11.3 billion yuan, an increase of 80.9% over the previous year.

Business aspects

Mobile phones: high-end technology continues to advance. In terms of shipment volume, global shipments of Xiaomi phones reached 43.3 million units this season, an increase of 0.5% over the previous year. Among them, the global shipment share is about 13.6%, ranking in the top three, and the mainland's shipping share is about 16.7%, ranking in the top two. In terms of high-end technology, Xiaomi's high-end mobile phone sales in mainland China this season accounted for 24.1%, and the mobile phone market share in the 4,000-6,000 yuan price range reached 18.9%. In the Xiaomi 17 series, Pro and Pro Max models account for more than 80%, and the structure has been further optimized. IOT: Iterative technological intelligence. In terms of shipment volume, Xiaomi tablets are in the top five global shipments this season, TWS earphones are second in global shipments, and wearable wristband devices are number one in the world. In terms of the number of connected devices, as of this quarter, the number of devices connected to the company's AIoT platform surpassed 1 billion for the first time, an increase of 20.2% over the previous year. In September 2025, the Mijia App and Xiaoai's MAU surpassed 110 million and 150 million respectively. In terms of technological intelligence, the Xiaomi smart home appliance factory was put into operation in October 2025, marking that the major Xiaomi appliance business has opened a closed loop of “design - R&D - production - verification” industry.

Automotive and AI innovation business

First profit in a single quarter. The number of Xiaomi cars delivered this season was around 109,000, a record high. In October 2025, the Xiaomi YU7 series ranked first in the mainland SUV sales ranking. This season, Xiaomi Auto and AI innovation business achieved operating profit in a single quarter for the first time, with operating revenue of about 700 million yuan.

Profit forecasting and ratings

The bank believes that in the short term in the future, mobile phone and car tracks may face changes in the pace of subsidies and upward changes in raw material costs. However, as a leading industry share and an outstanding high-end enterprise, the Xiaomi Group is relatively competitive in the face of short-term disturbances in the industry environment. In the long run, Xiaomi's strategic advantage of “the whole ecosystem of people, cars and cars” is remarkable. In September 2025, with the release of Xiaomi-MIMO-Audio, Xiaomi launched a full range of model matrices for language, multi-modality, and voice. In November 2025, Xiaomi released the smart home solution Xiaomi Miloco, pioneering the exploration of smart living in the whole house driven by large models. The bank believes that Xiaomi's multi-terminal collaboration solution is expected to lead the way to future hardware entry. Reiterate the “buy” rating. The bank estimates that Xiaomi Group's revenue in 2025-2027 will be 4,700/5570/694 billion yuan, and non-GAAP net profit of about 440/501/65 billion yuan. Based on the company's main consumer electronics business 20x2026e P/E and the automotive and AI innovation business 2.5x2026E P/S, the bank gave the Xiaomi Group a target price of HK$52, reaffirming the “buy” rating.

Risk Alerts

Mobile phone competition has exceeded expectations, storage costs have risen beyond expectations, IoT progress has fallen short of expectations, and smart car competition has exceeded expectations.