Will the “Goldilocks” Narrative Regain the Market? NRF predicts record spending force flocking to Thanksgiving shopping week

The Zhitong Finance App learned that a recent forecast from the American Retail Federation (NRF) shows that the upcoming US Thanksgiving weekend is expected to welcome a record number of shoppers. At a time when some Wall Street analysts questioned the shrinking wallets of American consumers and were pessimistic about the outlook for the US economy, the NRF quickly informed them that at least this year's holiday shopping spree will not be possible, and it is difficult to establish this pessimistic statement.

The NRF's latest forecast report points to another record-breaking Thanksgiving + “Black Friday” shopping spree. At a time when the US non-farm labor market is falling into a weak trajectory, next week's Thanksgiving + “Black Friday” may bring significant benefits to the US economy in the fourth quarter and even 2026 — consumer spending accounts for 60% to 70% of the estimated US GDP.

Various economic data for 2025, which were released before the US government shut down, actually showed Golden Girl's prospects. Although the non-farm payrolls market is in a weak state, the combination of economic data from January to August 2025, which is in line with the expected curve and rising GDP, has indeed raised the subjective probability of the “Goldilocks” macro scenario: that is, growth is weak, inflation is too hot, and market expectations are more “biased towards interest rate cuts.” This is why the market's expectations for the US economy to return to the Golden Girl macro environment are heating up after the previous strong US GDP data, retail sales data, and a recent PCE that exceeded expectations.

The so-called “Goldilocks” (Goldilocks) macroeconomic environment in the US refers to the US economy being lukewarm and just right, maintaining moderate “moderate growth” in GDP and consumer spending and a stable long-term “moderate inflation trend”. At the same time, the benchmark interest rate is on a downward trajectory. Wall Street financial giant Morgan Stanley said in the newly released US Economic Outlook Report that it is expected that the US economy will gradually emerge from a state of high uncertainty in 2026 and return to a positive path of “moderate growth.”

Echoing the US economy's “Golden-style soft landing,” the US retail giant Walmart performed extremely well and raised its full-year performance guidelines for two consecutive quarters. Financial reports show that Walmart's total Q3 revenue increased 5.8% year over year to US$179.496 billion, better than market expectations of US$177.57 billion. Among them, net sales increased 5.8% year over year to US$177.769 billion; membership and other revenue increased 9.0% year over year to US$1,727 million. Walmart currently expects net sales to grow 4.8%-5.1% for the full year of the 2026 fiscal year, compared with the previous forecast of 3.75%-4.75%; adjusted operating profit is expected to increase 4.8%-5.5%; adjusted earnings per share are expected to be 2.58-2.63 US dollars, compared to the previous forecast of 2.52-2.62 US dollars.

US version of “Double Eleven Shopping Spree”

“Black Friday” also usually marks the “unofficial start day” of the Christmas shopping season. Within a few hours after Thanksgiving Day in the US (November 27) this year, people often wait in long lines outside of large retail stores or wait anxiously online to buy products that start the big discount mode after opening or after 12 o'clock online. The “Christmas shopping season” that began as a result continues until around the end of the year. On the Internet, “Black Friday” in Europe and America (November 28 this year) is often used by netizens as an analogy with the “Double Eleven” shopping festival launched by Chinese e-commerce companies.

In a recent consumer survey, NRF analysts expect a record 186.9 million people will participate in shopping from Thanksgiving Day in the US to “Cyber Monday” (Cyber Monday), which is more anticipated by young American office consumers, or even 3 million more than the already strong record level set last year.

“Black Friday” (Black Friday) will continue to be the most popular day for shopping and discount promotions throughout the year. 70% of the NRF survey respondents (or 134 million people) are expected to go shopping on the Friday after Thanksgiving, followed by “Cyber Monday” (about 40%). On the relatively niche “Small Business Saturday” (Small Business Saturday), 36% of respondents are expected to leave their homes. Most American consumers say the reason is to support local small and medium-sized businesses.

“More than half of consumers who plan to take advantage of a discount promotion said it was because the discount was too good to miss. Others mentioned it's traditional American culture, or simply because they love starting a holiday shopping spree this long weekend.” Phil Rist, vice president of strategy at NRF's Prosper Insights & Analytics, said.

The NRF estimates that American consumers will spend more than $1 trillion on Thanksgiving holiday shopping season spending this year. Payment methods include debit cards (44%), credit cards (27%), and cash (16%). The estimated per capita budget for expensive gifts and other seasonal products is $890. 59% of US shoppers will follow the digital trend this year and use digital wallets and apps to complete their purchases. This is roughly in line with the situation in recent years.

American families with children can expect to spend about $33 more on their gift budget this year. According to an NRF survey, children's gift wishes for Santa include Legos (Legos), Barbie dolls (Barbie dolls), and Hot Wheels (Hot Wheels).

This year's most popular gift category is clothing and accessories, replacing consumer electronics items that became the most popular gift choice in 2024. According to an NRF survey, gift cards and toys that are popular around the world are still popular gift options, with 43% and 32% of respondents referring to these two types of products, respectively. US consumers are expected to spend around $29.1 billion on gift cards, which means an increase of about 1.7% from last year's strong level.

An increasingly popular trend is second-hand gifts—this should not be confused with “re-gifting” (re-gifting). NRF found that more than half of respondents would consider buying used or “upcycled” (upcycled) gifts to stay within the holiday shopping season budget and get more value for every penny. Some popular second-hand gifts include books, accessories, and home decor.