Counterpoint Research: Nvidia (NVDA.US) strategy shifts to superposition structural factors, advanced memory prices may double

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to the “GenAI's Memory Solution” biweekly report recently released by Counterpoint Research, memory prices have increased by 50% since this year. Based on this, prices are expected to continue to rise 30% in Q4 2025, and may rise by about 20% more early next year. Currently, traditional LPDDR4 faces the greatest risk of price increases. At the same time, as Nvidia (NVDA.US) dramatically increases demand for LPDDR on the server side, broader and longer-term risk factors surrounding advanced chips have emerged, thus spilling over into the entire consumer electronics market.

One of the current core issues is the tightening supply of traditional LPDDR4. In order to meet AI's strong demand for advanced new products, suppliers are shifting production capacity to higher-end processes, causing the overall market structure to be disrupted. Spot market prices are inverted: the DDR5 transaction price for servers and PCs is around $1.50 per gigabit (Gb), while the price of the old DDR4 for consumer electronics is as high as $2.10, or even higher than the current advanced HBM3e of about $1.70.

Counterpoint predicts that major chip makers' DRAM production will increase by more than 20% in 2026. Research director MS Hwang said, “Samsung may adjust its expanding 1C process capacity allocation; SK Hynix is increasing production and raising sales targets; Changxin may deliver performance that exceeds expectations; and Micron, which has always focused on return on investment, is unlikely to remain on hold.”

The current shortage of chips is mainly concentrated on traditional products, which has had an impact on low-cost consumer electronics products such as economical smartphones using LPDDR4.

Hwang said, “The real greater risk comes from advanced memory. Nvidia's recent shift to LPDDR means that demand has reached the size of a large smartphone manufacturer — a huge shock to the supply chain because it can't easily absorb such large-scale demand.”

Traditionally, servers relied on DDR ECC (error correction code) memory to ensure reliability, while Nvidia chose to switch to LPDDR to achieve lower power consumption and shift the error correction logic to the CPU side rather than DDR5 ECC.

Therefore, in a situation where supply is extremely limited, Counterpoint predicts that the price of DDR5 64GB RDIMM DRAM modules will triple from Q1 2025 to the end of 2026.

DRAM price situation (DDR5 64GB RDIMM)

Source: Counterpoint Research, GenAI's Memory Solutions Biweekly Report, Issue 21

The current shortage is mainly in the mid-range and low-end smartphone market, which has had an impact on budget smartphone manufacturers. “But the impact is likely to spread to the entire smartphone and consumer electronics ecosystem.” Senior analyst Ivan Lam said, “What we are seeing is a significant rise in smartphone BOM costs, which could be as high as 15% for some models. This will affect the core middle and high-end markets, further reducing profit margins or dragging down growth, and it is likely that both will happen at the same time.”

At the same time, macro-risks such as tariffs, geopolitics, and employment trends have further heightened uncertainty. The industry is under the double pressure of limited production capacity and soaring prices, and suppliers and manufacturers will be forced to find a living space through a series of difficult trade-offs.