China Index Research Institute: Second-hand housing prices in key cities may continue to adjust in the short term

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the China Index Research Institute said that in the first 10 months of this year, the cumulative sales volume of second-hand housing in key cities generally maintained a slight increase trend, and market activity declined in October. Second-hand housing sales are expected to recover somewhat month-on-month in November, but under last year's high base, the year-on-year pressure is still under some pressure, and prices may continue to adjust in the short term.

At the policy level, on October 28, the “Proposal of the CPC Central Committee on Formulating the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development” was officially released. The “Proposal” clearly states “promoting high-quality real estate development” in the section on people's livelihood security and common prosperity, and lays out five major tasks, including constructing a new model of real estate development, optimizing the supply of guaranteed housing, increasing the supply of improved housing due to urban policies, building “good houses”, and establishing a safety management system for the entire life cycle of housing. At the same time, in vigorously boosting consumption, the “Proposal” proposes to clean up unreasonable restrictive measures on consumption, such as automobiles and housing. Furthermore, as urban development enters the stage of improving stock quality and efficiency, the “Opinion” once again emphasizes the need to “vigorously implement urban renewal” in the new urbanization section, and making good use of inefficient land use and vacant real estate has also become an important part of improving the market-based allocation of factors.

At the local level, in October, in response to the “good house” construction implementation optimization policy, Chengdu issued a document regulating architectural design plans, planning rules, etc.; Shenzhen issued a document to steadily advance the implementation of the “Housing Project Code”. To approve residential projects with a height of more than 80 meters, opinions from fire and rescue departments are required; Guangzhou, Kunming, Haikou and other places issued technical specifications for “good houses”. Meanwhile, Hefei, Nanjing, Chengdu, Guangxi and other places are optimizing provident fund loan policies in the direction of increasing loan amounts, optimizing “business to public”, and optimizing flexible employment deposits. Guangzhou clearly promotes the use of special loans to purchase existing commercial housing as housing resettlement. Also, in October, Shandong, Hebei, Chongqing and other provinces and cities issued more than 22.5 billion yuan of special bonds to collect and buy unused land stocks.

Second-hand housing prices in the top ten cities continued to decline month-on-month in October

Figure: Average price of second-hand housing listings in the top ten cities in October 2025 and the month-on-month ratio

Figure: Average prices and month-on-month changes of second-hand housing in the top ten cities from October 2020 to October 2025

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

According to the Baicheng Price Index of the China Real Estate Index system, in October 2025, the average price of second-hand housing in Baicheng fell 0.84% month-on-month and 7.60% year on year; the average price of second-hand housing in the top ten cities fell 0.96% month-on-month, down 4.77% year on year.

Looking at each city, second-hand housing prices in the top ten cities all fell month-on-month in October. On a month-on-month basis, Nanjing and Wuhan both fell 1.80% and 1.68%, respectively; Tianjin and Chongqing (main urban areas) both fell 1.25% month-on-month; Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Shanghai all fell between 0.8%-1.0% (inclusive); Shenzhen and Chengdu saw the smallest month-on-month decline, at 0.63% and 0.50%, respectively. On a year-on-year basis, Nanjing and Wuhan had year-on-year declines of 10.25% and 10.61%, respectively; Tianjin, Chongqing (main urban areas), and Guangzhou all fell between 6%-7%; Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen fell between 3% and 5%; and Chengdu had the smallest year-on-year decline of 1.14%.

Beijing: Second-hand housing sold 12,000 units in October. Market activity declined, and prices are still under pressure

Figure: The number of second-hand housing units sold in Beijing and the month-on-month trend of second-hand housing prices from October 2020 to October 2025

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

In terms of transactions, in January-October, the number of second-hand residential units sold in Beijing increased 5% year on year. In October, 1,087 units were sold. Affected by last year's high base and the release of demand driven by the August New Deal, the volume fell by about 30% year on year. In terms of prices, second-hand housing prices in Beijing fell 0.87% month-on-month and 4.82% year-on-year in October.

Figure: Average price of second-hand housing listings in Beijing's municipal districts in October 2025 and month-on-month ratio

Table: Typical new housing projects in Beijing

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

Shanghai: Second-hand housing transactions remained on a certain scale in October, and the market continued to “exchange price for volume”

Figure: The number of second-hand housing units sold in Shanghai and the month-on-month trend of second-hand housing prices from October 2020 to October 2025

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

In terms of transactions, the number of second-hand residential units sold in Shanghai increased 11% year-on-year in January-October. Of these, 16,374 units were sold in October, a slight decrease of 7.6% month-on-month. At a higher base, the year-on-year decline was more than 20%. In terms of prices, in October, second-hand housing prices in Shanghai fell 0.85% month-on-month and 4.56% year-on-year.

Figure: Average price of second-hand residential listings in Shanghai in October 2025 and the month-on-month ratio

Table: Typical new housing projects in Shanghai

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

Guangzhou: Second-hand housing transactions declined somewhat in October, and short-term prices are still under pressure

Figure: The number of second-hand housing units sold in Guangzhou and the month-on-month trend of second-hand housing prices from October 2020 to October 2025

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

In terms of transactions, in January-October, the number of second-hand residential units sold in Guangzhou increased 11.9% year on year. Market activity declined in October, and 6,245 second-hand housing units were sold, down 13.8% year on year. In terms of price, second-hand housing prices in Guangzhou fell 1.00% month-on-month and 5.49% year-on-year in October against the backdrop of competition for new products and maintaining a high level of listing volume.

Figure: Average price of second-hand residential listings in Guangzhou in October 2025 and the month-on-month ratio

Table: Typical new housing projects in Guangzhou

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

Shenzhen: Second-hand housing sales remained at a certain scale in October, but the policy effect weakened

Figure: The number of second-hand housing units sold in Shenzhen and the month-on-month trend of second-hand housing prices from October 2020 to October 2025

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

In terms of transactions, the number of second-hand housing units sold in Shenzhen increased 19.8% year on year in January-October. In October, due to the decline in policy effects, the activity of the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen declined. 4196 second-hand housing units were sold, a slight decrease of 7.7% month-on-month. Affected by last year's high base, the year-on-year decline was quite obvious. In terms of prices, in October, second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen fell 0.63% month-on-month and 3.13% year-on-year.

Figure: Average price of second-hand residential listings in Shenzhen in October 2025 and the month-on-month ratio

Table: Typical new housing projects in Shenzhen

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

Hangzhou: Second-hand residential sales in Hangzhou declined somewhat in October, and prices continued to fall month-on-month

Figure: The number of second-hand housing units sold in Hangzhou and the month-on-month trend of second-hand housing prices from October 2020 to October 2025

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

In terms of transactions, the number of second-hand residential units sold in Hangzhou increased by 3.8% year-on-year in January-October. Among them, market activity declined in October, and 4310 second-hand housing units were sold, down 10.6% month-on-month. Affected by last year's high base, the year-on-year decline was significant. In terms of prices, in October, second-hand housing prices fell 0.87% month-on-month and 4.91% year-on-year.

Figure: Average price of second-hand residential listings in Hangzhou in October 2025 and the month-on-month ratio

Table: Typical new housing projects in Hangzhou

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

Chengdu: 17,000 second-hand housing units were sold in October, and prices continued to decline

Figure: The number of second-hand housing units sold in Chengdu and the month-on-month trend of second-hand housing prices from October 2020 to October 2025

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

In terms of transactions, the number of second-hand residential units sold in Chengdu increased 11.5% year on year in January-October, and market activity declined in October. The number of second-hand housing units sold was 16,994, down 12.4% month-on-month and 14.2% year-on-year. In terms of prices, second-hand housing prices in Chengdu fell 0.50% month-on-month and 1.14% year-on-year in October.

Figure: Average price of second-hand residential listings in various municipal districts of Chengdu in October 2025 and year-on-month comparison

Table: Typical new housing projects in Chengdu

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

Nanjing: Second-hand housing market performance was lackluster in October, and pressure to adjust prices is still strong

Figure: The number of second-hand housing units sold in Nanjing and the month-on-month trend of second-hand housing prices from October 2020 to October 2025

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

In terms of transactions, the number of second-hand residential units sold in Nanjing fell 7.6% year on year in January-October, and 5,295 units were sold in October, down 17.0% month-on-month and 18.7% year-on-year. In terms of prices, in October, second-hand housing prices in Nanjing fell 1.80% month-on-month and 10.25% year-on-year, and are still facing some downward pressure in the short term.

Figure: Average price of second-hand residential listings in various municipal districts in Nanjing in October 2025 and the month-on-month ratio

Table: Typical new housing projects in Nanjing

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

Wuhan: The market continues the “price for volume” trend. Second-hand residential sales in October were basically the same year on year

Figure: The number of second-hand housing units sold in Wuhan and the month-on-month trend of second-hand housing prices from October 2020 to October 2025

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

In terms of transactions, the number of second-hand residential units sold in Wuhan increased by 8.0% year-on-year in January-October. Of these, 7,703 units were sold in October, down 8.4% month-on-month and 2.0% year-on-year. In terms of prices, in October, second-hand housing prices in Wuhan fell 1.68% month-on-month and fell more than 10% year-on-year.

Figure: Average price of second-hand residential listings in various municipal districts of Wuhan in October 2025 and year-on-month comparison

Table: Typical new housing projects in Wuhan

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

Chongqing (main urban area): Second-hand housing prices continued to decline month-on-month in October

Figure: Month-on-month trend of second-hand housing prices in Chongqing from October 2020 to October 2025

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

In October, the average price of second-hand housing in Chongqing was 11,174 yuan/m², down 1.25% month-on-month and 6.26% year-on-year, putting pressure on short-term prices. Looking at the subregion, the decline in central Chongqing was relatively small, less than 1%, while the month-on-month decline in Dadukou and Banan was relatively large.

Figure: Average price of second-hand residential listings in Chongqing (main urban area) in October 2025 and the month-on-month ratio

Table: Typical new housing projects in Chongqing

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

Tianjin: Nearly 10,000 second-hand housing units were sold in Tianjin in October, and the price adjustment trend continued

Figure: The number of second-hand housing units sold in Tianjin and the month-on-month trend of second-hand housing prices from October 2020 to October 2025

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

In terms of transactions, the number of second-hand residential units sold in Tianjin in January-October decreased by 3.3% year on year. Of these, 9890 units were sold in October, a slight decrease of 4.6% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of about 20%. In terms of prices, in October, second-hand housing prices in Tianjin continued to be adjusted, falling 1.25% month-on-month and 6.88% year-on-year.

Figure: Average price of second-hand residential listings in various municipal districts in Tianjin in October 2025 and the month-on-month ratio

Table: Typical new housing projects in Tianjin

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS