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Moderna (MRNA) Is Down 6.7% After Lowering 2025 Revenue Outlook and Posting Q3 Loss

Simply Wall St · 11/19/2025 09:19
  • Moderna recently reported third-quarter 2025 results, revealing a year-over-year revenue drop to US$1.02 billion and a net loss of US$200 million, alongside a narrowed full-year revenue guidance to between US$1.6 billion and US$2 billion.
  • This shift reflects mounting pressures from declining vaccine demand and signals that previously anticipated revenue stabilization remains uncertain.
  • We'll examine how Moderna's reduced revenue outlook and third consecutive quarterly loss shape the company's longer-term investment thesis.

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Moderna Investment Narrative Recap

At its core, owning Moderna stock means believing in the company’s ability to turn its mRNA technology pipeline into substantial new revenue streams that can offset ongoing declines in COVID-19 vaccine demand. The latest guidance cut and another quarterly loss highlight that near-term revenues remain under pressure, and the greatest risk remains an overreliance on seasonal vaccine sales without swift and successful product diversification; this news does not materially change those short-term dynamics, though it does reinforce the urgency behind pipeline progress.

The most relevant recent announcement is Moderna’s narrowed full-year revenue outlook, now expecting US$1.6 billion to US$2 billion for 2025, down from previous projections. This concrete guidance reduction puts renewed emphasis on how quickly the pipeline can deliver, especially with no share buyback in the past quarter, a sign that near-term cash flows may be closely managed.

On the other hand, investors should be aware of how rapidly intensifying competition in respiratory vaccines could potentially...

Read the full narrative on Moderna (it's free!)

Moderna's outlook anticipates $3.5 billion in revenue and $498.6 million in earnings by 2028. This scenario assumes a 4.6% annual revenue growth rate and an increase in earnings of about $3.4 billion from the current loss of $2.9 billion.

Uncover how Moderna's forecasts yield a $40.30 fair value, a 62% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

MRNA Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
MRNA Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

Twenty-five fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$39.79 to US$175 per share, showing wide disagreement. With revenues now forecast to decline up to 33 percent year-over-year, you will find plenty of sharply contrasting viewpoints to compare.

Explore 25 other fair value estimates on Moderna - why the stock might be worth over 7x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Moderna Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

  • A great starting point for your Moderna research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward that could impact your investment decision.
  • Our free Moderna research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Moderna's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.