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How Record Revenue Guidance and Buybacks at QUALCOMM (QCOM) Has Changed Its Investment Story

Simply Wall St · 11/14 06:26
  • QUALCOMM recently reported results for the fourth quarter and full year ended September 28, 2025, with quarterly revenues rising to US$11.27 billion and issuing earnings guidance for the first quarter of 2026 projecting record revenues between US$11.8 billion and US$12.6 billion.
  • The company also updated on its share buyback, having repurchased over 50 million shares since November 2024, totaling more than US$7.76 billion in capital returned to shareholders.
  • We'll explore how QUALCOMM's record revenue guidance for 2026 may shift its investment outlook and diversification ambitions.

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QUALCOMM Investment Narrative Recap

QUALCOMM’s long-term investment story centers on capturing sustained growth from AI, connected devices, and diversification beyond smartphones, while confronting fierce competition from in-house chip efforts at major OEMs. The company’s record-setting first-quarter 2026 revenue guidance is certainly encouraging for near-term sentiment, but it does not materially alleviate the significant risk posed by its exposure to smartphone cycles and already-rising competition in its core chipset business.

Among several recent corporate actions, QUALCOMM’s ongoing share buyback, over 50 million shares repurchased since November 2024, stands out in this context. While this substantial return of capital may support shareholder value and bolster confidence around future cash flows, it is ultimately the company’s ability to secure large-scale design wins (especially outside smartphones) that remains the key short-term catalyst for the stock’s prospects.

However, the real risk investors should watch is that, despite record guidance, QUALCOMM’s heavy reliance on cyclical handset markets means that ...

Read the full narrative on QUALCOMM (it's free!)

QUALCOMM's narrative projects $46.9 billion revenue and $12.2 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 2.7% yearly revenue growth and a $0.6 billion earnings increase from $11.6 billion.

Uncover how QUALCOMM's forecasts yield a $187.71 fair value, a 8% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

QCOM Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
QCOM Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

Fair value estimates from 31 members of the Simply Wall St Community span a wide US$140 to US$300 per share range. As you weigh these views, remember that QUALCOMM’s competitive challenges with leading OEMs could have far-reaching effects on its market opportunity and margin outlook.

Explore 31 other fair value estimates on QUALCOMM - why the stock might be worth 20% less than the current price!

Build Your Own QUALCOMM Narrative

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.