CITIC Construction Investment: Energy storage demand is expected to exceed expectations next year and is optimistic about the opportunities brought by the increase in lithium battery and material shipments and prices
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment Securities released a research report saying that it is optimistic about the opportunities brought about by the increase in lithium battery and material side shipments and prices brought about by the increase in energy storage exceeding expectations. Domestic and overseas power battery demand is expected to be +16%/20% year on year in 2026, and global power battery demand is 1,559 GWh, or +17% year over year. Next year, demand for energy storage is expected to exceed expectations. Seeing an increase in capacity utilization in the materials sector, some areas are tight. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of the 2026Q4 node 6F, LFP, diaphragm, and copper foil will reach 106%/96%/98%/95%. It has now been seen that the price of loose orders in the 6F chain of supply and demand has doubled since the bottom, and the prices of LFP, anode, diaphragm, copper foil, and aluminum foil have also begun to rise.
Looking ahead to the “15th Five-Year Plan”, it is expected that the installed scale of global and domestic new energy will continue to rise, leading to structural changes in the global power system:
1. The high proportion of wind and light connected to the grid will generate massive adjustment demand, and energy storage will usher in large-scale expansion due to its economic advantages. As the investment cost of energy storage has dropped dramatically in the past few years and has become the most economical flexible resource for power grids, the growth in global energy storage demand will resonate and will also drive the lithium battery industry into a new cycle.
2. New energy sources have forced a sharp increase in grid investment, boosting the long-term trend of terminal electricity prices. Increased penetration of new energy sources will force a steady increase in global grid investment. However, investment in power grid transformation, including investment costs for energy storage power plants, will eventually be reflected in an increase in terminal electricity costs, thereby driving up the long-term rise in terminal electricity prices and further opening up demand space for household storage and industrial and commercial storage.
3. Low-carbon high-density power supplies have become necessary and scarce production capacity. Currently, mainstream energy sources such as photovoltaics and land wind occupy a large area of land. In the future, high-density, low-cost power sources will gradually be released, including ocean wind, SOFC, combustion engines, nuclear power, etc.
4. AI drives the power density of data centers to increase dramatically, triggering a revolution in power supply systems. Take the GB300 platform as an example. The power consumption of the entire cabinet is more than 10 times that of a traditional cabinet. On the one hand, the high efficiency and reliability requirements of AIDC power supplies have increased, and SST combined with 800V HVDC will become the ultimate solution in the future. On the other hand, energy storage provides capacity for AIDC, and demand for AIDC storage will also explode in the future.
Judging from the 2026 industry selection strategy, CITIC Construction Investment continues to use differences in the growth rate of supply and demand, and comprehensively evaluates each industry based on the supply and demand ratio of each industry and marginal changes in the pattern. AIDC, new energy technology, large storage, lithium electricity, sea wind, power equipment going overseas, ultra-high voltage power equipment, and household storage ratings are high. It is recommended to focus on it.
Energy storage: Improved economy has helped the global demand for energy storage explode, driving the lithium battery industry into a new cycle. Household storage & commercial storage are currently undervalued by the market
With the promotion of Domestic Document No. 136, the energy storage industry has reached an economic inflection point, bringing about nonlinear growth. Next year, domestic installed capacity is expected to reach 300 GWh, driving the total demand for lithium batteries to exceed 2,700 GWh next year, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 30%. Among them, demand for energy storage batteries exceeds 900 GWh, and lithium batteries may be in short supply in many areas. Overseas US data center allocation and storage is expected to bring demand for hundreds of GWh of energy storage; demand is strong in Europe, Australia, and Latin America. In terms of household storage & commercial storage, after the global penetration rate of new energy sources increases dramatically, it will inevitably bring large demand for energy storage and power grid transformation, and push terminal electricity consumption into a long-term upward channel, which will open up room for long-term demand growth in household storage & commercial storage.
Lithium battery: demand is the core contradiction, materials are elastic under cycle reversal
I am optimistic about the opportunities brought about by the increase in lithium battery and material side shipments and prices brought about by the increase in energy storage exceeding expectations. On the demand side, CITIC Construction Investment expects domestic energy storage capacity to double year-on-year in 2026, with global energy storage battery delivery demand of 943 GWh, +68% year over year; considering declining domestic policies, European models and policies, CITIC Construction Investment expects domestic and overseas power battery demand to be +16%/20% in 2026, respectively, and global power battery demand is 1559 GWh, +17% year over year. After adding consumer and other sectors, the global demand for lithium batteries is estimated to be 2,716 GWh in 2026, or +32% year over year. On the supply side, due to the downward price cycle of the past two years, the rate of expansion of production by industrial chain companies has clearly slowed down, and most companies are unable to expand production significantly under tight financing and continuous profit losses. Previously, excess production capacity was gradually digested along with the 3-year compound growth rate of the industry's demand of 30% +. Currently, the entire materials industry's capacity utilization rate is over 75%, and 2026Q2 will exceed 80%, providing a basis for price increases. CITIC Construction Investment believes that next year, energy storage demand will exceed expectations. Seeing an increase in capacity utilization in the materials sector, some aspects are tight. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of 6F, LFP, diaphragm, and copper foil will reach 106%/96%/95% in 2026Q4. It has now been seen that the price of loose orders in the 6F chain of supply and demand has doubled since the bottom, and the prices of LFP, anode, diaphragm, copper foil, and aluminum foil have also begun to rise.
In terms of solid-state batteries, the current node is in a critical period where the technical solution is about to be implemented and the underground pilot line is advancing construction. The preferred equipment process is mainly because it is expected that orders on the equipment side will land faster than on the material side due to the introduction of new industries. At the same time, the dry process has the logic of increasing value compared to the traditional liquid battery wet coating process. We recommend manufacturers of core equipment with fast progress, strong customer binding capabilities, and differentiated layouts.
Power equipment: Exports are both booming and strong fundamentals, and the high voltage within the network is moving steadily forward.
1) Overseas: The export boom continues, and core companies' export business starts to increase profits. The growth rate of orders and revenue for the 2025Q3 export business was impressive. The export business is also accompanied by certain risks and fluctuations, etc. Therefore, companies that have strong alpha attributes and rich product matrices will continue to benefit from the beta benefits of the industry. Focus on incremental opportunities brought about by continued demand growth in markets such as North America and the Middle East. 2) Online: Abundant orders and solid fundamentals. Head High Voltage Equipment Company's 2025Q3 delivery is generally slightly slow due to the pace. The abundance of orders on hand is sufficient to support future performance. Orders for high-voltage equipment within the 2025H2 network will continue to increase, and demand for high-voltage equipment on the Northwest Main Network will continue to be strong. It can be seen from this that the high-voltage equipment industry still maintains a high degree of certainty. The volume of orders for high-voltage equipment in 2025 is expected to support strong performance in 2026.
Wind power: The fundamentals of the wind power industry were clearly repaired in 2025, and the industry gradually came out of trouble
In 2025, the fundamentals of the wind power industry were clearly repaired. The industry gradually came out of trouble, looking forward to the “15th Five-Year Plan”, focusing on “main offshore lines, especially overseas sea breezes”. Fans, towers, offshore cables, and spindles are expected to experience a double increase in quantitative profit during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period. The profit of offshore units in some areas (fans, offshore engineering, etc.) is several times better than domestic. It is expected that the overall trend of the domestic wind power industry will resume healthy development in a state of strong demand. The domestic business ecology has improved markedly. Follow-up focus: (1) Domestic and foreign ocean wind demand, construction progress, and enterprise order acquisition. Some companies have relatively independent logic, such as Daikin Heavy Industries. In addition to focusing on offshore export business, they focus on the company's shipping logistics and floating business progress; (2) the main engine company has entered an explosion period, focusing on fan companies going overseas, and the domestic market is concerned about whether the profit recovery of the host business in 2026 exceeds expectations (currently the market expects the net interest rate of the landwind mainframe business in 2026 to be 2-3%); (2) In terms of components, focus on whether the potential price increase in parts is likely or concerned about The increase in export penetration rate.
Photovoltaics: Under the “anti-internal roll” policy, the PV industry is expected to clear up at an accelerated pace
Q3 PV achieved results in reversing internal circulation. The silicon sector turned losses into profits, and profits improved in most parts of the industry. Currently, the PV anti-internal roll policy is still in progress. In the future, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the integration of silicon production capacity and module price progress. Currently, silicon production control and marketing control have begun to be implemented, and most details of the production capacity integration plan have reached the final confirmation stage. It is expected that the final plan will be implemented in the near future. Although photovoltaic internal rolling has achieved certain results, the silicon material industry is still facing a high inventory cycle, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the pace of the industry's production reduction and storage removal in the future. In the short term, the focus is on the strength of anti-domestic policies, and I am optimistic about leading companies in main materials and auxiliary materials, as well as the direction of new technology in the industry (BC, TopCon3.0, paste).
AIDC power distribution: strong expectations+strong reality continue to be realized, and the main direction is high prosperity.
1) Demand: AIDC demand at home and abroad resonates well, and major Internet companies at home and abroad support the continuation of AIDC capital development. 2) Trend: The trend of Nvidia's 800V power supply scheme was determined, and the increase in power density spawned iteration of the power supply scheme. Leading equipment manufacturers have already deployed forward-looking technologies such as SST/HVDC to seize the opportunity. 3) Resonance upward: 2025Q3AIDC's boom has been realized through orders & revenue, and the flexibility of leading companies will continue to be unleashed. It is expected that in 2025H2 and 2026, we will see the continued implementation of AIDC-related businesses, which have ushered in a high boom in the industry and a resounding improvement in performance.