TrendForce: It is expected that DDR5 contract prices will continue to rise in 2026, and profit performance will be better than HBM3e from the first quarter

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to the latest survey by TrendForce Jibang Consulting, the fourth quarter of 2025 Server DRAM contract prices benefited from the expansion of data centers by global cloud vendors (CSP), which strengthened the increase, and led to an increase in overall DRAM prices. Looking ahead to 2026, server demand is expected to remain strong, and DDR5 contract prices may rise throughout 2026. As the price of DDR5 continues to rise and the spread with HBM3e narrows, the profit performance of DDR5 is expected to be superior to that of HBM3e starting in the first quarter of 2026.

According to TrendForce, although the DRAM contract price for the fourth quarter has not yet been fully announced, the supplier's willingness to raise the price increased markedly after receiving requests for additional orders from CSP. TrendForce Consulting adjusted the fourth quarter conventional DRAM (Conventional DRAM) price estimate based on this. The increase was raised to 18-23% from the previous 8-13% increase, and it is likely that it will be revised again.

Looking ahead to 2026, it is estimated that the annual increase in server unit shipments will expand to about 4%, and as CSPs actively introduce high-efficiency computing architectures to support large-scale model operations, the server stand-alone DRAM capacity will increase accordingly, boosting overall demand for DRAM bits better than expected, leading to continued supply shortages.

As demand for servers remains strong, DDR5 contract prices are expected to rise throughout 2026, especially in the previous half of the year. Compared with the current HBM bargaining situation in 2026, the contract price is expected to decrease annually as the three original manufacturers compete with HBM3e and the buyer has a certain inventory level.

According to TrendForce Jibang Consulting's analysis, in the second quarter of 2025, HBM3e and DDR5 still had a price difference of more than four times, and the former could bring better profits to suppliers. However, as the price of DDR5 continues to rise, the price difference between the two will clearly subside in 2026. Starting in the first quarter of 2026, DDR5's profit performance will be superior to HBM3e.

Since HBM3e and DDR5 production capacity compete with each other, after the expected profit structure is reversed, suppliers may choose to further increase the supply of server DDR5 to strengthen their profit base. At the same time, as HBM3e prices are gradually stabilizing and demand momentum is still strong, it is not ruled out that suppliers will seek to increase average unit sales price (ASP) to balance product portfolio profits. The future capacity allocation and price strategy of the original manufacturer between DDR5 and HBM will be variables affecting the next stage of the market.