Goldman Sachs raised its iron ore price forecast for next year but maintained a bearish stance

The Zhitong Finance App learned that due to factors such as macroeconomic support, tight inventories, and strong steel production in China, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 iron ore price forecast, but it is still expected that next year's price will drop from the current level. Analysts including Aurelia Waltham said in a report that Goldman Sachs expects the average price of iron ore to be $93 per ton in 2026, which is $5 higher than the previous forecast.

“The iron ore market supply has been tighter than we expected in recent months,” analysts said in the report. They said that China's strong steelmaking production, and port inventories have remained stable over the past two quarters. Coupled with the appreciation of the RMB, this has supported iron ore prices.

Iron ore futures rose for the third day in a row. As of press time, they were up 0.7% to $106.45 per tonne. As China takes steps to reduce industrial overcapacity, iron ore futures prices have rebounded about 15% from their mid-June low.

Despite strong steel exports, demand remains under pressure. Goldman Sachs said the outlook is still uncertain, and the price of iron ore is expected to drop to $88 per ton by the last quarter of 2026, although this figure is higher than the previous forecast of $80.

On the supply side, Goldman Sachs said that global iron ore shipments have increased 15% year-on-year so far this quarter, which may exacerbate the seasonal increase in port inventories and cause stocks to continue to rise throughout 2026.