Counterpoint: Windows 10 shutdown drives a wave of switching Q3 global PC shipments increased 8.1% year-on-year

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to preliminary data from Counterpoint Research, global PC shipments in Q3 2025 increased 8.1% year-on-year. This increase was mainly due to Microsoft (MSFT.US) ending support for Windows 10 in October 2025 and inventory strategy adjustments related to changes in US import tariffs.

The cessation of Windows 10 service is equivalent to setting a “refresh countdown” for the entire industry, prompting businesses and consumers to replace old systems before the October deadline. Currently, about 40% of the PC installed base still runs Windows 10, and this replacement cycle is expected to be the main driving force for PC market growth in the next few years.

PC shipments from major global OEMs in Q3 2025 (unit: million units)

In the competitive landscape, major manufacturers seized the opportunity of this switching cycle, and many companies achieved double-digit year-on-year growth:

Lenovo (00992) continues to be number one in the global market. Shipments increased 17.4% year-on-year in the quarter, the highest increase among the top six manufacturers.

HP (HPQ.US) was in second place, and shipments increased 10.3% year over year, highlighting its deep penetration in the commercial market.

Dell (DELL.US) has maintained a strong momentum of development, but its annual performance declined slightly. Its shipment volume fell slightly by 0.9% year on year, and increased by 2.7% month on month, reflecting the cautious purchasing attitude of core enterprise customers.

Apple (AAPL.US) was driven by the popularity of new MacBooks and corporate popularity, and shipments increased 14.9% year over year.

Asus's shipments surged 22.5% month-on-month during the quarter, while achieving a 14.1% year-on-year increase due to steady demand for consumer laptops.

The top five manufacturers together account for nearly three-quarters of the global PC market, and the concentration of the high-end market has further increased; in contrast, shipments of small and medium-sized brands have remained flat or declined slightly.

Senior analyst Minsoo Kang said, “While current growth is mainly driven by operating system migration, the industry will usher in a deeper transformation with the rise of AI PCs. However, this new wave of growth has yet to be fully reflected in the 2025 Q3 data.”

The significant increase in AI PC shipments is expected to begin after 2026. This shift will be driven by commercialization of next-generation processors designed for local AI computing, including Qualcomm (Qualcomm) Elite X2 chips, Intel (Intel) Panther Lake architecture, and subsequent products developed in collaboration with NVIDIA (NVIDIA).

The wave of switching, driven by the shutdown of Windows 10, is laying the necessary financial and hardware foundation for the industry to smoothly move into the era of AI-enabled devices in the next few years.

Deputy Director David Naranjo stated, “The recovery of the PC market in 2025 is not only a system update, but also a preparation for the next phase. Many companies are purchasing AI-enabled PCs to lay out future applications ahead of time, even if they don't have actual needs yet. The next wave of rotation switches will be driven by 'edge intelligence' rather than simply improving performance.”

Looking ahead, the industry's focus is turning to the next engine of growth — the rise of AI PCs. In 2025, major PC manufacturers have begun to launch new models with local AI acceleration features, such as laptops that can run generative AI assistants or large language models locally. However, these AI-driven features have yet to be a major driver of overall PC sales. Consumers still pay more attention to optimizing basic functions such as operating system compatibility, performance, and battery life when purchasing machines. Currently, AI PCs are more of a “forward-looking configuration”, and many companies are beginning to purchase AI PCs to avoid future technological obsolescence.

It is expected that the real acceleration period for AI PC shipments will arrive after 2026, when next-generation chips and platforms will be fully launched. Semiconductor giants are actively planning this stage. It is expected that these AI core chips will be mass-produced by the end of 2026 and widely commercialized in 2027. At that time, AI-optimized PCs will officially enter the mainstream market, which is likely to push the PC industry to a new stage of growth in the latter half of this decade.