Qunzhi Consulting: The wave of commercial switches superimposes CPUs and GPUs revolutionizes the laptop market and enters a new era

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Qunzhi Consulting said that although the laptop market was affected by tariff policies in the first half of 2025, overseas production capacity of leading brands mitigated risks in the second half of the year. Technology-driven switching became the core driving force for the new cycle. Commercial demand due to aging performance and system upgrades will set off a wave of switches, and shipments are expected to pick up. Starting in 2026, the market entered a growth stage, with iterative upgrades of CPUs and GPUs, mass production of Intel's 18A process, breakthroughs in NPU computing power, and advances in NVIDIA's next-generation GPU technology, stimulating market vitality. The development of OLED and Touch notebooks accelerated in 2025-2026. OLED laptop shipments increased, brand penetration increased, Touch NB module shipments were impressive, and leading brands drove the growth of in-cell Touch NB panels.

2025 Market Review and Forecast: Easing Tariffs, Driven by Technology, Laptop Market Entering a New Cycle

In the first half of 2025, the US tariff policy had a significant negative impact on the overall performance of the laptop market (hereinafter referred to as the “laptop market”). However, according to Sigmaintell (Sigmaintell) data, the overseas production capacity of leading brands in Southeast Asia is expected to basically meet the needs of the North American market in the second half of 2025. Although there is still great uncertainty about tariff policy in the medium to long term, related risks have been mitigated. In this context, technology-driven switching demand will continue to be the core driving force for the new industrial cycle.

In 2025, the commercial laptop market set off a new wave of switching devices. Back in 2020-2021, the global pandemic raged, and the telecommuting model became mainstream, prompting many companies to centrally procure laptops to meet employees' office needs. After a 3-5 year usage cycle, these devices have generally experienced performance aging problems, and they seem “unable to cope” with complex tasks in digital office scenarios; however, the application of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data analysis places higher demands on the software and hardware capabilities of notebook computers. In order to effectively improve office efficiency and enhance the overall competitiveness of enterprises, enterprises urgently need to speed up the process of equipment upgrading.

Furthermore, Windows 10's policy of completely discontinuing service for commercial customers in the fourth quarter of 2025 also formed a catalyst for commercial laptop switching. Coupled with the AI features of Windows 11 and its Trusted Platform Module (TPM) requirements for hardware. The above three factors (laptop replacement cycle, Win10 shutdown, and Win11 performance upgrade) have all accelerated the trend of enterprise equipment upgrades. According to Sigmaintell (Sigmaintell) data, global laptop shipments are about 184 million units in 2024, and are expected to rise to around 194 million units in 2025. The compound annual growth rate is expected to remain in the range of 5.6% to 2.8% between 2025 and 2027.

2026 Key Technology Foresight Insights: Empowering CPU and GPU Innovations, Dual Wheel Driving Force in the Laptop Market

Beginning in 2026, the laptop market will continue to grow, and its core driving force stems from the continuous iterative upgrading of CPUs and GPUs.

In terms of CPUs, heterogeneous computing architectures are the core foundation of AI PCs. By combining NPU and compatible processors, it can achieve optimal application performance, energy efficiency ratio, and battery life, thereby fully empowering a new generation of enhanced generative AI experiences. In this architecture, the CPU is mainly responsible for lightweight, single-time inference artificial intelligence tasks. As a low-power AI engine, the NPU mainly undertakes the computing requirements of low-power artificial intelligence application scenarios. Intel's 18A process is a key point in its return to semiconductor manufacturing leadership. The process entered early production in the third quarter of 2025 and is scheduled to achieve large-scale mass production in Fab 52, Arizona in early 2026.

Sigmaintell (Sigmaintell) expects CPU computing power to be further upgraded in 2026, and NPU computing power is expected to fully exceed 50 TOPS. Therefore, the above technical collaboration between CPU and NPU will effectively enhance the user experience and lay a solid foundation for the continued growth of the laptop market from 2026 to 2027.

In the GPU field, take NVIDIA, the industry leader, as an example. Its next-generation products have achieved significant breakthroughs in ray tracing technology and parallel computing capabilities. This technological advance has not only greatly improved the realism and fluency of game images, provided gamers with a more immersive visual experience, but also effectively accelerated the processing speed of artificial intelligence applications to meet the performance requirements of content creators in high-load tasks such as video rendering and image processing. As consumer demand for high-performance computing devices continues to grow, gamers and content creators are gradually becoming the main driving force for device upgrades.

Sigmaintell (Sigmaintell) expects NVIDIA RTX 60 series graphics cards to be released between the second half of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, which will lay the technical foundation for the development of gaming laptops and high-performance light and thin books in 2027, and further stimulate the vitality of the consumer market.

Innovation in laptop display technology: the growth of OLED and Touch laptops will accelerate from 2025 to 2028

In the context of the accelerated development of artificial intelligence laptops (AI PCs), the natural advantage of AI in photo and video creation makes consumers prefer laptop products equipped with OLED screens; while the friendly Touch function can enhance the human-computer interaction experience and improve creation/work efficiency, it is expected that there is also considerable room for development in the laptop field.

Looking at the OLED sector first, OLED laptops will achieve rapid growth from 2025 to 2027. Sigmaintell (Sigmaintell) expects shipments to reach 11.5 million units in 2025, and this scale will reach about 17.4 million units in 2026.

On the brand side, Lenovo is actively leading OLED technology as the main direction for laptop screen upgrades. In 2026, with the dual supply of Samsung Display (SDC) and Hehui Optoelectronics (EDO) and mass production of BOE (BOE) 8.6-generation OLED laptop panels, OLED will grow simultaneously in its consumer and commercial product lines. Demand for Lenovo OLED laptops is expected to nearly double, making its OLED demand reach about 40% of the main brand camp. HP will actively introduce ROLED starting in 2026, and the OLED penetration rate is expected to reach 5%. The Apple MacBook Pro and Air product lines will switch OLED technology at the 2026 and 2029 time points respectively, becoming an important driver for the growth of the OLED laptop market.

Looking at the development trend in the Touch field, Sigmaintell (Sigmaintell) data shows that panel manufacturers are expected to ship about 25.4 million Touch laptop modules in 2025, accounting for 11% of the laptop panel market. Among the segments of Touch laptop modules, the on-cell type dominates, with the highest market share of about 62%; the OGS type, which mainly has an external Touch, accounts for about 25%; while the in-cell type has a relatively small market share.

According to Sigmaintell (Sigmaintell) data, overall laptop Touch Panel shipments are expected to jump to 28.6 million units in 2026, and this figure is likely to reach a new high again by 2027. Meanwhile, leading brands are intensively planning to further expand the application of Touch technology in commercial and consumer product lines. This technological innovation will focus on in-cell solutions. Sigmaintell (Sigmaintell) expects shipments of in-cell Touch laptop panels to rise sharply in 2026. At that time, the shipment share of in-cell notebook panels is expected to rise to about 18%.