Damo: Raising the ASMPT (00522) target price to HK$100, expected to record a loss in the previous quarter or due to one-time restructuring expenses

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Morgan Stanley released a research report predicting that ASMPT (00522) may record losses in the third quarter due to one-time restructuring expenses, but investors are advised to pay attention to its long-term growth drivers, including the expansion of CoWoS-L production capacity, the development of high-bandwidth memory in China, and the progress of hybrid bonding. Damo also pointed out that demand for mainstream semiconductors is recovering, and the advanced packaging market continues to grow. Currently, it is estimated that ASMPT's third-quarter order shipment ratio will remain at least 1 times, giving it an “increase” rating. The target price will be raised from HK$80 to HK$100, and the earnings forecast per share for 2026 and 2027 will be raised by 10% and 23%, while earnings estimates for the full year of this year will be reduced by 45%.

According to the bank, ASMPT's median revenue guidance for the third quarter was US$475 million, or 11% year-on-year increase. Damo currently predicts that the company's revenue will meet the guidelines, but it is believed that it will record a one-time restructuring expenditure of about 360 million yuan during the period, so it will record a net loss of about 69 million yuan. As for the fourth quarter, the bank predicts revenue to reach 3,646 billion yuan, an increase of 7% over the previous year, and recorded a quarterly net profit of about 126 million yuan. The increase in semiconductor solution revenue was mainly driven by advanced packaging.