CICC: Maintaining Goku Express - W (01519) outperforms the industry rating target price of HK$11.1

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report stating that the 2025/2026 profit forecast for Jitu Express - W (01519) is US$319/470 million, which currently corresponds to 37/25 times P/E for 2025/2026. Maintain outperforming industry ratings. Considering the upward trend in the sector's valuation center, keep the target price of HK$11.1 unchanged, corresponding to 40/27 times P/E in 2025/2026, with 9% upside compared to the current price. Recently, the company disclosed 3Q25 business data: Southeast Asia business volume +79% YoY to an average of 21.7 million units, China's business volume +10% YoY to an average of 60.6 million units per day, and business volume in new markets +48% YoY to an average of 1.1 million units per day. The bank believes that the company's business volume in Southeast Asia and new markets has exceeded its expectations, and is optimistic about the expansion of the company's international share.

Southeast Asia: The number of orders may steadily rank first in the market share as social e-commerce grows, and it is reiterated that the optimization of the express delivery pattern is expected to reach an inflection point in 2025, and that the EBIT of a single ticket may remain stable. The bank believes that the Southeast Asian e-commerce retail market is still in a stage of rapid growth, at the e-commerce market level. The bank believes that the trend of free e-commerce express delivery in Southeast Asia this year is expected to further stimulate the development of online shopping habits among consumers. Therefore, Jitu, which has the largest share in the express delivery industry, is expected to continue to widen the share gap with other third-party logistics providers with the cost advantage of scale effects. According to the company's announcement, the market share of third-party carriers ranked fourth and fifth in the 1h25 market was -1.2ppt to 5.5% year over year, and -0.9ppt to 4.4% year over year, respectively, while Polar Rabbit's market share was +5.4ppt to 32.8% year over year. At the e-commerce share level, social e-commerce platforms such as TikTok take the lead in exploring the incremental market with their natural advantages in content e-commerce, so Jitu, as a third-party logistics provider, is expected to gain a large share of incremental demand with its independence. The bank reiterated that the Southeast Asian express delivery pattern is expected to be further optimized this year. Jitu's business volume may increase by more than 50% year-on-year, and the EBIT of a single ticket may remain stable with cost optimization.

New market: The development of the industry is still in its early stages, and the company's volume growth is expected to maintain high growth along with e-commerce penetration. According to Moten Ventures, since the launch of the Brazilian website in May, TikTok's GMV growth has increased 45 times from 1 million US dollars in May to 46.135 million US dollars in August. The bank believes that the development of the e-commerce industry in Latin America is still in its early stages. As a third-party logistics provider with many Chinese e-commerce platforms and the local e-commerce platform Meike in Latin America, Jitu is expected to benefit from an increase in e-commerce penetration rate, and the number of orders is expected to remain high.

China: Constrained by a price war in the short to medium term, the second half of the year may ease with the “backlash”, and observe the progress of cost optimization.