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Assessing Privia Health (PRVA) Valuation After Strong Quarterly Beat and Cautious Full-Year Guidance

Simply Wall St · 10/22 00:18

Privia Health Group (PRVA) just posted a quarter with revenue up 23% year over year and outperformed expectations for both revenue and earnings per share. However, its more cautious full-year guidance is giving investors pause.

See our latest analysis for Privia Health Group.

Trading volume surged after Privia Health’s quarterly beat, pushing the share price up over 16% in the past month and more than 32% year-to-date. However, the company’s more cautious outlook cooled some of that momentum. Its one-year total shareholder return stands at 47%, handily outpacing the sector, even as the three-year total return remains in the red.

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With the stock not far from analysts’ price targets and an intrinsic discount still in play, the big question is whether Privia Health is undervalued at these levels or if the market is already factoring in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 13.7% Undervalued

Privia Health Group’s widely followed narrative estimates a fair value meaningfully above its last close, suggesting untapped upside if the numbers hold true. These views are shaped by expectations for robust growth and margin expansion, which sets a high bar for the years ahead.

The industry-wide movement towards value-based care, with associated shared savings and care management fees, is enabling Privia to grow its value-based attributed lives at a double-digit rate and to expand margins as risk-sharing agreements mature, which is positively impacting earnings and long-term EBITDA growth.

Read the complete narrative.

What could power this surge in value? Imagine a scenario of relentless patient growth, improved margins, and a significant earnings jump similar to that seen in high-performing tech firms. The narrative gathers bold projections that might change your perspective on how a healthcare stock can be priced. Want to see what’s driving this anticipated increase? The story behind these numbers is only a click away.

Result: Fair Value of $30.15 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing consolidation among healthcare giants or rising labor costs could challenge Privia’s growth story and potentially limit upside in the coming years.

Find out about the key risks to this Privia Health Group narrative.

Another View: Valuation Through Multiples

Looking at valuation from a different angle, Privia Health trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 1.7x. This is higher than the US Healthcare industry average of 1.3x and much higher than our fair ratio estimate of 0.7x, but still below peers at 4.1x. This gap signals both potential opportunity and valuation risk, depending on how the market shifts. Could these levels draw in more bullish sentiment, or is the premium already priced in?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NasdaqGS:PRVA PS Ratio as at Oct 2025
NasdaqGS:PRVA PS Ratio as at Oct 2025

Build Your Own Privia Health Group Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to dig into your own take on Privia Health, you can build a completely custom narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Privia Health Group.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.