Minsheng Securities: The high passenger occupancy rate of airlines in September was transmitted to price increases, and concerns about the inflection point of off-season prices

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Minsheng Securities released a research report saying that the year-on-year recovery in domestic air ticket price data in September was firmly driven by improvements in supply and demand. The tight supply logic has not changed. The continuing narrowing of the gap between supply and demand is expected to reach an inflection point in 2025Q4. Continued high utilization rates and passenger occupancy rates have led to a year-on-year rise in domestic ticket prices. After major foreign affairs activities ended in early September, there was an improvement in business travel demand, which led to a steady recovery in domestic route prices. Continued improvement in business travel demand is expected to drive the industry to increase year-on-year prices in the fourth quarter and increase sector investment sentiment.

The main views of Minsheng Securities are as follows:

Industry News: A-share listed airlines release operating data for September 2025

In September, aviation demand benefited from increased passenger flow and longer flight distances at a higher rate than supply, and passenger occupancy rates for domestic and international routes both reached new highs. Supply and demand continued year-on-year growth in September, with endogenous growth in domestic passenger flow and further lengthening of flight distances driving demand growth. The year-on-year high base of supply growth was limited. According to various company announcements, the total ASK/RPK of the six A-share listed airlines in September was +4.0%/+7.1% YoY. Passenger occupancy rates for domestic and international routes all hit new highs in September of the previous year:

1) The domestic supply and demand growth gap widened in September, and the passenger occupancy rate reached a high level: Six Airlines' domestic ASK/RPK ratio was +2.2%/+4.7% in September, and the passenger occupancy rate reached 87.3%, reaching the highest level in September; 2) The growth rate of international flight supply slowed in September, and the gap with demand growth widened: in September, the ASK/RPK growth rate for international flights increased +8.7%/+13.6% year-on-year, passenger occupancy rate of +3.5 pcts year on year, and international route turnover continued to grow at a high base in the same period in 2024 However, the supply growth rate has slowed somewhat. September ASK/RPK reached 98.0%/102.9% respectively in the same period in 2019, and the current supply of the industry has entered a tight bottleneck period.

In September, the industry operated at a high level of aircraft utilization. Higher passenger occupancy rates led to price increases. The relationship between supply and demand was tight, and public business demand recovered

Minsheng Securities said that in terms of overall volume and price, the September industry data showed excellent performance. The utilization rate continued to operate at a high level, and the high occupancy rate was transmitted to price increases.

1) Utilization rate: Flight Manager showed that the utilization rate of aircraft in the September industry was 7.8 hours, which was basically the same, with widebody aircraft -3.4% year-on-year and +0.4% year-on-year for narrow-body aircraft; 2) Passenger occupancy rate: domestic flight occupancy rate of the six airlines in September was 87.3%, +2.1pcts year on year, compared with +3.9pcts in the same period in 2019, reaching a record high; 3) Price: Flight Manager showed a year-on-year ratio of +0.6% and +1.0% for domestic economy class in September 2.4%, international Ticket prices were -15.2% year-on-year (Ctrip's domestic and international year-on-year declines in August were 4.3% and 14%), and utilization rates and passenger occupancy rates continued to be high, leading to a recovery in domestic prices.

In September, the Six Airlines driver fleet increased 0.3% month-on-month. Narrow-body aircraft were still the main models introduced, and the size of the industry's fleet expanded steadily

According to the company's announcement, as of September 2025, the six A-share listed companies managed a total of 3,340 aircraft, a net increase of 11 over the previous month, a cumulative total of +3.6% over the end of 2024. The size of the Six Airlines driver fleet continued to expand in September. Among them, the receiver models are mainly the A320 series and the B737 series: the six airlines have introduced a total of 19 narrow-body aircraft (1 C919, 6 B737, 12 A320).

Aspect of the target

Follow China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH), China Airlines (002928.SZ), Air China (601111.SH), China Southern Airlines (600029.SH), Juneyao Airlines (), and Spring Airlines (Dubai). 603885.SH 601021.SH

Risk Alerts

The recovery in business travel demand fell short of expectations; oil prices rose sharply; the RMB exchange rate fluctuated; and large-scale grounded flights due to aircraft failure.