Minsheng Securities: Sora 2 brings AIGC video GPT-3.5 and always suggests focusing on three favorable directions
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Minsheng Securities released a research report saying that Sora 2 brought the GPT-3.5 moment of AIGC video and formed a closed loop with the “content platform stimulates demand (Sora) — payment channel guarantee (Stripe) — e-commerce platform supply products (Shopify/Etsy)” business model to build a new business model in the AI era through the “Agentic Commerce Protocol” (ACP), which has huge commercial potential. It is recommended to focus on three favorable directions: Sora2 will further drive the “arms race” of giant AI Infra, upgrade opportunities for traffic distribution platforms, and the blue ocean market for IP licensing and compliance.
The main views of Minsheng Securities are as follows:
Sora 2 brings upgrade opportunities to traffic distribution platforms
The Sora App reached the top when it was released, bringing opportunities to upgrade the business model for traffic distribution platforms. According to the WeChat account of the Financial Services Association, in the context that app download users must rely on an invitation code given by others to use the feature, Sora topped the Apple beauty app rankings on October 3, local time. At the same time, videos generated by the new OpenAI “Sora 2” model can also be seen on many other social media platforms. The Sora app mainly brings two disruptive AIGC social features: cameo (Cameo) and secondary creation (Remix). According to AI Cambrian WeChat account:
1) Cameo: Cameo's core working principle stems from the world simulation models (world simulation models) that OpenAI is building. By observing a short video clip about a subject (such as a person, a pet), the model can deeply understand the appearance, dynamics, and characteristics of that subject. Once understood, this subject can be injected into any prompt like a text token. This means that users only need to provide a simple video material to “transport” themselves or friends to the ancient Colosseum, a futuristic cyberpunk city, or any scene imaginable, and let them naturally move and interact in it.
2) Secondary Creation (Remix): This is a core interaction mechanism of the Sora App. When users see a video they like, they can click the Remix button to re-create based on it. For example, when they see a perfume ad, the user can type in a new hint, such as “turn it into a hat ad with huge feathers,” and Sora will generate a brand new video associated with the original. This feature greatly lowers the threshold for participating in popular trends and storylines, making it easy for everyone to participate in AIGC production.
OpenAI forms a closed loop business model with a “content platform stimulates demand (Sora) — payment channel guarantee (Stripe) — e-commerce platform supplies products (Shopify/Etsy)”, and constructs a new business model for the AI era through an “Agentic Commerce Protocol” (ACP).
According to the WeChat account of the mobile payment network, OpenAI recently announced the launch of a new “Instant Checkout” instant checkout function, which allows users to complete product purchases directly through the content of its AI chatbot ChatGPT. This also marks the deep integration of OpenAI and e-commerce. ChatGPT has also easily closed the entire link from “product recommendation” to “direct payment”; in terms of payment technology implementation, OpenAI has developed an “Agentic Business Agreement” (Agentic Commerce Agreement) through cooperation with payment company Stripe Commerce Protocol, ACP) enables functions such as pre-filling payment information and one-click checkout, and ChatGPT subscribers (Plus/Pro) can automatically call up bound payment information; currently, ChatGPT product recommendations are based on network-wide data, and rankings only rely on correlation, such as price, quality, and user needs. When users make a transaction through ChatGPT, OpenAI will charge commissions, but the specific rates have not been disclosed.
ChatGPT's current recommendations will not be affected by the OpenAI partnership. In the future, if it can further balance the transparency of recommendation algorithms and avoid disputes arising from partnerships, users' e-commerce shopping behavior may naturally shift to AI-driven “conversational shopping”. With the further expansion of merchant coverage and payment capabilities, “conversational shopping” may disrupt traditional e-commerce traffic allocation rules.
Sora 2 opens up a new blue ocean market for IP licensing and compliance management
OpenAI is building a new IP-driven AIGC ecosystem generated around video through fine control and revenue sharing. According to the Sanzifang AIRX WeChat account, after the successful launch of Sora 2, OpenAI CEO Sam clearly stated in his personal blog in response to copyright issues hotly discussed in the market:
1) OpenAI will provide copyright parties with more fine-grained control, allowing them to manage character generation more accurately, similar to the “portrait consent” model, but will add more control options; 2) OpenAI plans to try to share part of the revenue with copyright parties that want users to generate their own characters.
The rapid development of AIGC is expected to drive a rapid increase in IP copyright protection demand. Take Fubo Group (03738) as an example. The VDNA video fingerprint recognition technology built by Fubo is currently one of the leading video content authorization technologies in the industry. By extracting film and television materials as unique “fingerprints”, the system establishes a complete content database and recognizes content uploaded to the platform; when identification is successful, it can trigger copyright management mechanisms on YouTube and other platforms to assist rights parties to apply for “keep videos and participate in sharing”, and while guaranteeing creators' freedom of expression, the content party can recover revenue. Fubo is also one of the few independent copyright protection technology service providers in the world (at the same time) with deep API access to platforms such as YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, and Soundcloud, and has maintained industry leadership in recognition efficiency and accuracy for a long time.
Sora 2 is expected to once again catalyze cloud demand, and cloud overseas is expected to be the first to benefit
Under OpenAI's strong AI closed-loop ecosystem, SAM indicates that OpenAI's computing power center is expected to reach 250 GW in 2033, which will expand more than 100 times compared to the end of 2025. According to the DataDevOps WeChat account, Sam Altman said in Slack: “OpenAI's computing power infrastructure consumed about 230 MW of electricity at the beginning of this year, and this figure is expected to exceed 2 GW by the end of 2025. OpenAI has set a bold long-term goal: secure 250 GW of electricity supply by 2033 to support its future AI business.”
The explosion of Sora2 is expected to accelerate the launch of overseas AIGC products, which in turn will push the Internet giant to go overseas. Take Alibaba Cloud as an example. Using Alibaba Cloud's AI infrastructure, Vidu, a video generation application under Alibaba Cloud, has covered more than 200 countries and regions, and the number of B-side service customers and calls has increased 300% month-on-month. Based on Alibaba Cloud's global network, Shengshu Technology has created a unified technical architecture at home and abroad: Alibaba Cloud's elastic resource pool is integrated across regions and the cloud side to help Vidu smoothly cope with changes in traffic; based on Alibaba Cloud's inference acceleration technology (DeepGPU), Vidu can generate videos with different resolutions faster than IDC with the same computing power 10% +; Using the high-performance storage bandwidth, container service ACK, and image warehouse ACR service capabilities provided by Alibaba Cloud, the Vidu model's warm-up time was reduced by 50%; based on Alibaba Cloud's global coverage, stable, efficient, and flexible cross-region networking capabilities, nearby access can reduce latency by more than 40%, providing Vidu with a highly available global network.
Investment advice
Sora 2 brought the GPT-3.5 moment of the AIGC video and formed a closed loop with the “content platform stimulates demand (Sora) — payment channel guarantee (Stripe) — e-commerce platform supplies products (Shopify/Etsy)” to build a new business model in the AI era through the “Agentic Commerce Protocol” (ACP)). It has great commercial potential. It is recommended to focus on:
Direction 1: Sora2 will further drive the “arms race” of giant AI Infra. Sora 2 opens the starting point for the platformization of consumer-grade AI applications. The huge traffic siphoning effect of super AI applications (Sora2 quickly topped the app list) will push big manufacturers to further invest AI in the “arms race” to cope with the impact of Sora2 on traditional giants' social, e-commerce, advertising and other cash flow businesses.
Direction 2: Opportunities for upgrading traffic distribution platforms. The “AIGC+ video distribution+payment+e-commerce closed loop” model has great market potential, and major global Internet technology companies have an opportunity to challenge Douyin/TikTok.
Direction 3: Blue ocean market for IP licensing and compliance. OpenAI clearly stated in its blog: “We plan to try to share some of the revenue with copyright parties that want users to generate their own characters.” Considering that the number of AIGC videos will be huge, the two major circuits of IP licensing and compliance will usher in new opportunities.
Risk Alerts
1) The implementation of AIGC technology falls short of expectations: Due to the uncertainty of AIGC technology, if the subsequent commercialization of the relevant AIGC technology falls short of expectations, it may adversely affect the exhibition business of related companies.
2) Increased competition in the AIGC industry: There are a large number of competitors in the AIGC field. In the future, in order to gain a larger share in the segment, competition in terms of market and technology may continue to intensify.