Yamato: Xiaomi Group-W (01810)'s target revenue for the next three years will reach 700 billion yuan, and the annual delivery volume of electric vehicles is 1 million units

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Yamato released a research report saying that yesterday (24th), it held a non-transactional roadshow with the management of Xiaomi Group-W (01810). The bank quoted Xiaomi's first-stage electric vehicle factory technology upgrade to increase production capacity. It has already boosted the weekly payment volume from 7,000 to 8,000 vehicles from July to early August to 10,000 to 12,000 vehicles since late August. The second phase factory design capacity is similar to that of the first phase, and is currently awaiting final government approval. Daiwa reiterated Xiaomi's “buy” rating and a 12-month target price of HK$76, based on a price-earnings ratio of 36 times from 2025 to 2026.

Xiaomi management believes that Xiaomi electric vehicles are not facing overcapacity or internal pressure. In 2026, the company will launch a new model and plans to launch the SU7 or YU7 variants. Xiaomi expects to start exporting electric vehicles to the European market in 2027, and is studying localized production in Europe. At this stage, the company's priority goal is to seize market share. It has no plans to enter the 150,000 yuan price band in the next 5 to 10 years, but is concentrating on the middle and high-end market. The 2025 electric vehicle delivery target remains unchanged at 350,000 vehicles. The overall business target is progressing well and is not significantly affected by changes in subsidy policies.

In the smartphone business, due to rising memory costs, the company expects a mobile phone gross profit margin of 11% to 12% in the second half of 2025, and the pressure is expected to ease in the first half of 2026. Xiaomi is studying upgrading phone specifications (such as switching to DDR5) and considering passing the costs on to consumers. The company predicts that mobile phone subsidies will gradually be withdrawn in the second half of the year, but the impact will be limited. As 70% of mobile phones are sold overseas, the growth in IoT business volume and average price is superior to that of peers. Xiaomi plans to use AI models to improve the functionality of various products and reduce operating costs (for example, AI is already responsible for 30% to 40% of code writing), and promote a closed loop of AI commercialization.

Yamato quoted Xiaomi management as saying that the company's revenue target is 700 billion yuan within three years, and plans to achieve the following goals in the next 3 years: 1) increase annual smartphone shipments by 10 million units to 200 million units, thereby driving mobile phone business revenue to 250 billion yuan; Internet of Things (IoT) revenue doubles to 200 billion yuan; the annual delivery volume of electric vehicles will reach 100 million yuan in the next three years, contributing 250 billion yuan in revenue