Accused of “revolving financing”! Nvidia (NVDA.US) is betting 100 billion dollars on the OpenAI market warns that a “bubble” signal has reappeared

The Zhitong Finance App learned that three years ago, OpenAI and Nvidia (NVDA.US) jointly set off a global artificial intelligence boom; now, the two companies have joined forces again to push the AI industry into a more costly stage of development — yet this cooperation quickly raised market concerns about the “AI bubble.”

Nvidia announced on Monday that it will invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI to help the parent company of ChatGPT to build large-scale data centers equipped with Nvidia chips. Some analysts pointed out that the deal is questionable: is Nvidia supporting the market through huge investments, thereby encouraging companies to continue to purchase its products?

Bernstein Research (Bernstein Research) analyst Stacy Rasgon (Stacy Rasgon) wrote in an investor report released after the deal was announced: “This move will clearly heighten concerns about 'circular financing'.”

For most of the AI boom, these concerns have always revolved around Nvidia to varying degrees. According to data from market data platform PitchBook, Nvidia participated in more than 50 AI corporate venture capital transactions in 2024, and the number of investments this year is expected to break through this figure. These investee companies (including AI model developers, cloud service providers, etc.) will then use the funds obtained to purchase Nvidia's expensive graphics processors (GPUs).

However, Rasgon pointed out that the scale of the investment in OpenAI “seems to dwarf all other investments.” In his report, he said the deal “may make such concerns stronger than ever before, and (perhaps with reason) call into question the underlying logic behind this move.” Rasgon added that Nvidia has stated that the investment in OpenAI will not be used to “directly purchase” Nvidia products.

Other tech giants such as Microsoft (MSFT.US) and Amazon (AMZN.US) will also make strategic investments in leading AI startups to promote the development of their cloud computing business. However, Nvidia has a unique position in the AI ecosystem: it dominates the advanced chip market, and these chips are the core equipment for training cutting-edge AI models. As a result, Nvidia is the single biggest beneficiary of the AI boom so far.

The collaboration between Nvidia and OpenAI is also taking place at a point where the industry is full of uncertainty. Today, more and more people inside and outside the industry are aware that the AI field may face risks similar to the bursting of the internet bubble 25 years ago. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman (Sam Altman) acknowledged the long-term potential of AI and emphasized the need to invest “trillions of dollars” to build infrastructure, but he also admits that the valuation of some AI startups may not be reasonable.

For OpenAI, which is currently in a state of loss, establishing a closer partnership with the company with the highest market capitalization in the world (referring to Nvidia) may be able to obtain financing support and more computing power resources that are difficult for it to obtain independently.

“It's a bit like having your parents guarantee your first mortgage.” Jay Goldberg (Jay Goldberg), an analyst at Seaport Global Securities (Seaport Global Securities), described it this way. Goldberg is one of the few analysts who gave Nvidia shares a “sell” rating.

Goldberg said he also believes that the deal has the meaning of “circular financing” and may be a reflection of “bubble behavior.”

“When the market is good, this will add the icing on the cake — the business grows faster and the performance data soars even more,” he said. “But when the cycle shifts (the cycle will inevitably shift), it makes the downside risk worse.”