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Is Extended Rinvoq Exclusivity Shifting the Investment Case for AbbVie (ABBV)?

Simply Wall St · 09/23 18:58
  • Earlier this month, AbbVie announced a settlement with all generic manufacturers challenging Rinvoq, extending its U.S. patent protection and exclusivity period until 2037.
  • This move strengthens AbbVie's long-term earnings outlook by delaying generic competition, supporting efforts to offset declining revenues from Humira.
  • We'll explore how extending Rinvoq's exclusivity window could impact AbbVie's future revenue trajectory and overall investment narrative.

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AbbVie Investment Narrative Recap

AbbVie’s investment case centers on its ability to defend and extend exclusivity for key immunology drugs like Rinvoq and Skyrizi, offsetting revenue pressures as Humira faces generic competition. The recent Rinvoq settlement meaningfully reduces the near-term risk of sudden revenue erosion, helping stabilize AbbVie's most important short-term catalyst, immunology franchise growth, while the critical long-term risk of regulatory-driven price controls and portfolio concentration still looms. If you believe AbbVie can continue to innovate and manage these headwinds, the extended exclusivity could be a key support, but ongoing vigilance remains essential.

In a related announcement, AbbVie recently secured expanded formulary access for VRAYLAR in Alberta, enhancing its neuroscience franchise. Steps like these may play a part in diversifying revenues away from blockbuster immunology drugs, and support long-term stability as the company manages the declining Humira contribution and pivots to new growth platforms.

However, against these advances, investors should be mindful of how AbbVie’s high reliance on a concentrated product lineup could leave it vulnerable if…

Read the full narrative on AbbVie (it's free!)

AbbVie's outlook projects $73.0 billion in revenue and $20.8 billion in earnings by 2028. This scenario assumes a 7.7% annual revenue growth rate and a $17.1 billion increase in earnings from the current level of $3.7 billion.

Uncover how AbbVie's forecasts yield a $217.45 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

ABBV Community Fair Values as at Sep 2025
ABBV Community Fair Values as at Sep 2025

Eight fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span US$187.76 to US$441.60, revealing highly varied outlooks. While many focus on immune franchise growth, the possibility of mounting regulatory pressure and patent expirations continues to shape the outlook for AbbVie’s future performance.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on AbbVie - why the stock might be worth as much as 98% more than the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.