Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | “Policy Address” boosts Hong Kong stocks to soar, and this interest rate cut may not be the same

[Anatomy Dashboard]

Negotiations between China and the US have come to an end. US President Trump extended the implementation of the TikTok ban on Tuesday, with a grace period until December 16. The rules are reasonable, and discussions will continue later. The Hong Kong government is increasing its stimulus, and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates tomorrow. Today, the Hang Seng Index jumped 1.78%, and the next target is directly at the 27,000 point mark.

On September 17, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Lee Ka-chiu, presented the 2025 “Policy Address” in the Legislative Council. In terms of industrial development and innovation, Li Jiachao focused on artificial intelligence (AI), including promoting AI research and talent advantages, strengthening AI financial advantages, strengthening AI data advantages, and expanding AI applications. Li Jiachao said that the government announced the launch of the HK$3 billion “Frontier Technology Research Support Program”, which will accept applications in the short term to support locally funded institutions to attract top international research figures in AI and other fields to Hong Kong to lead basic research on cutting-edge technology. Furthermore, the government has also set aside HK$1 billion to establish the “Hong Kong Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Institute” in 2026 to promote AI upstream research and development, transformation of midstream and downstream achievements, and explore application scenarios.

As can be seen, the general direction is to develop high technology. Once upon a time, when Hong Kong was brilliant in the 90s, if it had seized the opportunity to develop chips, Hong Kong would have taken off long ago. It's too late now, but it's also like making up for lost ground. In September, Zhitong Jin shareholder Tang (00020), as a rare high-tech AI company in the region, naturally benefited the most. Today, it directly exploded and surged nearly 16%. However, the core chip stock, Zhitong Gold stock, SMIC (00981) is unlikely to fall in September; today it is also up more than 7%.

In addition, the Policy Address also mentioned striving to shorten the settlement cycle for Hong Kong stocks from T+2 to T+1. In this case, it will stimulate more capital to be willing to use the Hong Kong Stock Connect to buy Hong Kong stocks.

Core technology stocks are all highly sought after. According to China Merchants Group's official WeChat account, China Merchants Group and Baidu Group (09888) signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement in Shenzhen on September 15. According to the agreement, the two sides will actively use their respective advantages through close cooperation to cooperate in the fields of science and innovation, transportation and logistics, comprehensive finance, real estate parks, etc., to construct a win-win pattern. Today it surged more than 15%.

There is also Alibaba (09988). Yesterday, the official media had a screenshot showing a comparison between the Pingtou Ge chip and the H20. The performance is quite good. The company has also completed issuing about 3.2 billion US dollars of zero-interest convertible priority tickets, which is up more than 5% today. Meituan (03690), mentioned yesterday, has increased by nearly 5% today because it participated in Yushu Technology's B2 round of financing before the 2024 Spring Festival, with a financing amount of nearly 1 billion yuan.

Ningde Era (03750) is also a core variety favored by foreign investors. Damocar came out to call: Ningde Era's independent R&D and manufacturing line has more than 25,000 component units, produces 2.2 million batteries per day, has more than 6,800 quality control points, processes 340,000 data times per second, and cooperates with molecular material science to build high barriers. In terms of production capacity, the current utilization rate is over 90%. A new production capacity of 250 GWh is being built, and the target is 1 TWh next year. The energy storage business can bring a 14 percentage point IRR premium in the global market, and the potential is huge. Today, it is also up more than 5%. China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055) also has a monopoly on the tobacco business, rising nearly 7% today.

The development of high technology is inseparable from computing power. Shantao Holdings (00412) made a profit and escaped yesterday, but today it will correct the error. The company announced a share repurchase plan of up to 100 million US dollars, which surged more than 17% today. Wanguo Data (09698) also rose more than 5%; the performance of individual cloud computing stocks was also strong. Jinshan Cloud (03896): Second quarter revenue of 2.35 billion yuan, up 24.2% year on year; among them, public cloud achieved revenue of 1.63 billion yuan, up 31.7% year on year, and industry cloud achieved revenue of 720 million yuan, up 10.1% year on year. Today's increase is over 9%.

Another powerful force today is the Education Unit. On the evening of September 14, Yuhua Education (06169) issued an announcement stating that the school recently received approval from the relevant government authorities and agreed to carry out the classification registration of for-profit private schools. This signal deserves close attention. Because private education cannot be listed on A-shares due to its non-profit nature, in the future, high-quality education companies registered as enterprises with stable profits can directly access A-shares through IPOs to obtain broader capital market financing channels, making it easier for enterprises to expand their scale, enhance their influence, and enhance operational flexibility.

Many provinces stipulate that for-profit colleges and universities can independently set tuition fee standards, and can also make adjustments more flexibly according to market demand in terms of major settings, curriculum arrangements, etc., to enhance profitability. In other areas, scale up is accelerated through models such as mergers and acquisitions and franchises. Shareholder level: Non-profit restrictions have been lifted, which is beneficial to listed companies to pay dividends, shareholders can receive rewards, and increase their motivation to operate. In the short term, although for-profit registration requires completing the transfer of assets such as land and real estate and paying additional taxes and fees, increasing costs in the short term, there are many long-term benefits, and market-based revaluation of assets will be realized. Today, China Education Holdings (00839) surged more than 16%, Yuhua Education (06169) rose more than 10%, and New Higher Education Group (02001) rose more than 6%.

Robots are still very popular. The A-share market revolves around Yushu. The high-standard varieties are all robot concepts. Hong Kong stocks once again surged more than 10%, while Dechang Electric Holdings (00179) and Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) all rose more than 5%, all of which were mentioned yesterday.

The aviation stocks mentioned in yesterday's sector focus were recognized by the market. China Airlines (00753), China Eastern Airlines (00670), and China Southern Airlines (01055) all rose by more than 6%. Domestic demand is nearing the peak season of the National Day. On the incremental side, after China became strong, China continued to relax the scope of visa-free travel. A strong country will inevitably attract many foreigners to enter the country. As mentioned by Individual Stock Nuggets, Tongcheng Travel (00780) directly benefited today.

At 2 a.m. on September 18, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision. Currently, the market generally expects to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. If interest rates are cut by 50 basis points beyond expectations, the stock market is bound to rise sharply. That's very unlikely. Because it will scare investors, and Powell also needs to maintain the final decency of the Federal Reserve. Now let's analyze the 25-point situation. First, let's rule out the hawks' interest rate cuts. They cut interest rates by a little bit in the first place; they are still hawkish, so it's hard to see; it probably won't.

Based on a dovish analysis of 25 basis points, according to the usual perspective, the market will be quite disappointed with this interest rate cut, or even vote with its feet, and this expectation has already filled up. However, considering that interest rates will be cut many times later (this is the power of the dovish), then it is estimated that capital that will stimulate the economy to develop a recovery momentum through interest rate cuts will account for the majority. In reality, the actual situation does not allow for bearishness; you can only keep your eyes closed; you can only keep your eyes closed and go long; you can only keep your eyes closed and go long. As a result, US stocks will rise first, and the script may need to be rewritten. In terms of domestic influence, today's trend shows the attitude. Of course, there is heated talk of welcoming interest rate cuts. No matter how much, even shocks will not change the upward trend.

[Section Focus]

Today, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology publicly solicited comments from the public on the mandatory national standard “Safety Requirements for Intelligent Connected Vehicle Combined Driver Assistance Systems”. The draft for solicitation of comments released this time establishes a safety baseline for intelligent connected vehicle products, requiring that the system can only be activated under its designed operating conditions. Comprehensive safety technical requirements such as human-robot interaction, functional safety, and expected functional safety, information security, and data recording have been set up for different functions such as single lane, multiple lanes, and pilotage assistance, and a “triple safety guarantee” has been established.

The release of this standard is of great significance. It will directly promote the iterative upgrading of technology, accelerate the implementation of advanced smart driving, and go overseas more smoothly once the standard is in place. In addition, it also plays a regulatory role in the industry, fills gaps in safety standards, restructures industry competition rules; clarifies boundaries of responsibility, mitigates systemic risks in the industry, and provides safety guarantees for consumers, and there are laws to follow.

Main varieties: Horizon Robot (09660), Black Sesame Intelligence (02533), Sagiteng Juchuang (02498), Youjiao Innovation (02431), Xiaopeng Motor-SW (09868); Nexteer (01316), Zhejiang Shibao (01057).

[Individual Stock Mining]

Kuaishou-W (01024): Net profit margin reached a record high in a single quarter and commercialization continued to grow steadily

Recently, Kuaishou e-commerce said that it will invest 18 billion dollars in flow subsidies during the current Double 11 water storage period, and the full-cycle flow subsidy will reach hundreds of billions of dollars. Kuaishou 25Q2 achieved operating income of 35.046 billion yuan, up 13.1% year on year, adjusted net profit of 5.618 billion yuan, up 20.1% year on year, corresponding profit margin of 16.0%. Kuaishou announced its first special dividend since listing. The dividend was HK$0.46 per share, totaling approximately HK$2 billion.

Comment: Kuaishou 25Q2 hit a new high adjusted net profit margin in a single quarter, exceeding market expectations. Kuaishou traffic grew steadily in 25Q2. In 25Q2, Kuaishou DAU (average daily active users) reached 409 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, a record high. Commercialization continues to grow steadily. In 25Q2, Kuaishou's online marketing revenue was 19.8 billion yuan, up 12.8% year on year, showing a marginal improvement over the previous month. Kuaishou's other revenue of 5.237 billion yuan increased 26% year over year, exceeding market expectations. E-commerce GMV reached 358.9 billion yuan, up 17.6% year on year. The average number of e-commerce buyers per month is 134 million, and the frequency of repurchases has increased. Pan-shelf e-commerce GMV accounts for more than 32%. Live streaming revenue was 10 billion yuan, an increase of 8% over the previous year.

Keling technology continues to iterate, and 25Q2 achieved revenue exceeding expectations of 250 million yuan. Kuaishou launched the Keling 2.1 series model in May 2025, and has achieved comprehensive improvements in model quality. At WAIC 2025, Keling AI announced that “Smart Animation Fabric 1.0” will start an invitation test from now on, and “Studio Members” for professional teams and companies will be launched in 2025Q3.

Keling AI currently has more than 45 million creators around the world. Since its launch, the product has been iterated and upgraded more than 30 times, generating more than 200 million videos and 400 million images, and serving more than 20,000 enterprise customers through APIs. From a commercialization perspective, on the one hand, Keling's AI market share continues to rise. According to Poe data, Kling 2.0/1.6/1.5 usage reached 30.7% on May 4, 2025, ranking first; on the other hand, Keling's revenue is growing rapidly, and based on this, linear extrapolation of annual revenue is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan.