The board of Taylor Wimpey plc (LON:TW.) has announced that it will pay a dividend of £0.0467 per share on the 14th of November. This means the annual payment is 9.9% of the current stock price, which is above the average for the industry.
If the payments aren't sustainable, a high yield for a few years won't matter that much. Based on the last payment, the company wasn't making enough to cover what it was paying to shareholders. It will be difficult to sustain this level of payout so we wouldn't be confident about this continuing.
Over the next year, EPS is forecast to expand rapidly. If the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate the payout ratio could reach 86%, which is on the higher side, but certainly feasible.
See our latest analysis for Taylor Wimpey
The company's dividend history has been marked by instability, with at least one cut in the last 10 years. Since 2015, the dividend has gone from £0.0156 total annually to £0.0946. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% a year over that time. Dividends have grown rapidly over this time, but with cuts in the past we are not certain that this stock will be a reliable source of income in the future.
Growing earnings per share could be a mitigating factor when considering the past fluctuations in the dividend. Over the past five years, it looks as though Taylor Wimpey's EPS has declined at around 28% a year. A sharp decline in earnings per share is not great from from a dividend perspective. Even conservative payout ratios can come under pressure if earnings fall far enough. Over the next year, however, earnings are actually predicted to rise, but we would still be cautious until a track record of earnings growth can be built.
In summary, it's not great to see that the dividend is being cut, but it is probably understandable given that the current payment level was quite high. The company isn't making enough to be paying as much as it is, and the other factors don't look particularly promising either. Overall, this doesn't get us very excited from an income standpoint.
Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. Meanwhile, despite the importance of dividend payments, they are not the only factors our readers should know when assessing a company. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Taylor Wimpey (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.