Guoxin Securities: Prices of mainstream refrigerants continue to rise, and the liquid cooling sector opens up room for growth
The Zhitong Finance App learned that with the continuous digestion of annual quotas, Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that with the continuous digestion of annual quotas, each company has a limited number of sellable supplies during the year. The supply side has strong favorable price support, and there is still a possibility that the R32 new order price will rise further. The average price for September-November is expected to be 62,000 yuan/ton, 63,000 yuan/ton, and 64,000 yuan/ton, respectively. Furthermore, with the development of AI technology, server power density has increased dramatically, and traditional air cooling methods have reached a bottleneck. Liquid cooling technology can effectively reduce data center PUE. Among them, immersion and dual-phase plate liquid cooling have become future trends, driving rapid growth in upstream fluorinated liquid and refrigerant demand. Perfluoropolyether, hydrofluoroether, perfluoramine, and hexafluoropropylene oligomers all have advantages.
Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:
The future price of mainstream refrigerant products will grow steadily
On the R32 side, as annual quotas continue to be digested, each company has a limited supply of goods that can be sold during the year. They have a clear mentality of raising prices and hesitating to sell. The supply side has strong favorable price support, and there is still a possibility that the price of the new order will rise further. Average prices in September-November are expected to be 62,000 yuan/ton, 63,000 yuan/ton, and 64,000 yuan/ton, respectively. On the R134a side, as annual quotas continue to be digested, sellers' price appreciation mentality may continue to increase. Export demand gradually increased in the fourth quarter and long-term cooperative orders such as aerosol cans entered the negotiation stage one after another. The favorable fundamentals are still strong, and the market may still further raise expectations. Zhuochuang News expects the domestic refrigerant R134a market price to continue to rise steadily over the next three months. The average price is expected to be 52,000 yuan/ton, 53,000 yuan/ton, and 54,000 yuan/ton in September-November.
In terms of export prices, as of July 2025, the average export price of products such as R22, R32, and R134a is affected by factors such as customs clearance and shipping cycles, and is still inverted with the monthly domestic trade price, but domestic and foreign trade quotes on the enterprise side have been harmonized. Specifically, in July 2025, the average export price of R32 was 4,6576 yuan/ton, the average export price of R22 was 26,480 yuan/ton, the average export price of R134a was 4,4598 yuan/ton, and the average export price of the R125/R143 series was 31665 yuan/ton.
The air conditioner production base was high last year, and the total air conditioner production schedule declined year-on-year in September 2025
Domestic sales and production schedule data for air conditioners continued to rise in the first half of 2025. Among them, exports declined passively in January-February, and gradually began in March. Apart from seasonal stocking factors, the promotion of the two new policies was also greatly promoted. In May-June, as the 618 promotion node approached the peak demand season, production schedule performance increased strongly. Entering summer, hot weather in Northeast China, Shandong, Henan and other places led to an increase in sales in the air conditioning terminal market, and industry inventories were further digested.
Entering the third quarter, domestic sales and production schedules for household air conditioners showed a downward trend in September. On the one hand, it was affected by the high national supplement base last year; on the other hand, due to further overdraft demand in the first half of the year, companies had reservations about production expectations. In terms of exports, according to customs data, in January-July, China exported a total of 44.92 million air conditioners, +4.2% over the same period last year. The export market began to show a downward trend in May. Apart from Oceania, which continued to grow due to a small base, all other regions declined to varying degrees in June. Exports in July were affected by high inventory pressure and were in a downward cycle as a whole. Apart from Europe's favorable performance due to hot weather and Oceania, which achieved a certain increase due to lower base numbers, the performance of Asia and Latin America declined due to restrictions on re-export trade.
In terms of production schedule, according to Industry Online's domestic sales schedule report for household air conditioners, production schedule for September 2025 was 5.72 million units, -6.3% year over year; domestic sales schedule fell 23.4% year on year in October, and production schedule fell 17.6% year on year in November. In terms of export production schedules, the export schedule for September 2025 was 5.025 million units, -16.6% year-on-year; the decline in export schedules gradually improved in October and November.
Liquid cooling drives demand for upstream fluorinated liquids and refrigerants
With the development of AI technology, server power density has increased dramatically, and traditional air cooling methods have reached a bottleneck. Liquid cooling technology can effectively reduce data center PUE. Among them, immersion and dual-phase cold plate liquid cooling has become a future trend, driving rapid growth in demand for upstream fluorinated liquids and refrigerants. Perfluoropolyether, hydrofluoride, perfluoramine, and hexafluoropropylene oligomers all have advantages. It is recommended to focus on Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., Dongyue Group, Yonghe Co., Ltd. In addition, R134a can be used for dual-phase cold plate coolant. Juhua Co., Ltd. has an R134a quota of 76,500 tons, accounting for 37%; Haohua Technology has a quota of 54,000 tons, accounting for 26%; and Sanmei has a quota of 49,900 tons, accounting for 24%.
Investment advice
In 2025, second-generation refrigerant compliance was reduced at an accelerated pace, and the third-generation refrigerant quota system continued, and the concentration of R22 and R32 industries was high; the demand side was affected by factors such as national compensation policies and increased demand in emerging regions such as Southeast Asia, and air conditioning production and production schedules at home and abroad increased dramatically. With the rapid contraction in supply and the support of the air conditioning maintenance market, it is expected that there will be a gap between supply and demand in 2025; although the supply of the third-generation refrigerant R32 increased slightly year-on-year, inventories were exhausted in 2024, and the demand side also showed rapid growth. It is expected that a tight balance between supply and demand will be maintained in 2025.
Guoxin Securities believes that the tightening of refrigerant quota restrictions is a long-term trend. In this context, it is optimistic that the boom in second-generation and third-generation refrigerants such as R22 and R32 will continue, and prices will still have a lot of room to rise in the long term; leading companies dealing with second-generation and third-generation refrigerant quotas are expected to maintain a high level of long-term profitability. Furthermore, I am optimistic about the increase in demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants in the liquid cooling industry. It is recommended to focus on leading fluorine chemical companies and upstream resource leaders with complete industrial chains, complete infrastructure facilities, leading refrigerant quotas, and advanced process technology. Related targets: Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH), Dongyue Group (00189), Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379.SH), etc.
Risk Alerts
Demand for fluorine chemical products falls short of expectations; policy risks (stricter environmental protection policies for fluorine refrigerants, accelerated upgrading process, changes in quota issuance policies, etc.); global trade frictions and export blockages; sluggish real estate cycle prosperity; production progress of various companies' projects falls short of expectations; rising raw material prices; chemical production safety risks, etc.