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Upwork (UPWK): Assessing Valuation in Light of Its Major Enterprise Expansion with Lifted Launch

Simply Wall St · 08/23 11:16
If you’re tracking Upwork (UPWK) and considering whether now is the time to make a move, the company just gave investors something new to consider. Upwork has launched Lifted, its wholly owned enterprise subsidiary, which bundles talent sourcing, contracting, and workforce management into one solution tailored for the complex realities of large organizations. This is not just another incremental product tweak. With Lifted’s rollout, Upwork is signaling a serious push to capture more share of the growing enterprise gig economy, especially as businesses look to tap into global, specialized talent with minimal compliance and administrative burden. The announcement follows some internal changes, including the addition of a new chief operating officer and strengthened technology leadership. These developments indicate a company that is gearing up for a more focused and scalable enterprise strategy. After a rocky start to the year and a lag in momentum earlier this spring, Upwork’s stock has rebounded nearly 49% over the past year. However, returns in the past three months have slipped slightly, suggesting that while recent optimism is building, there is still some caution reflected in the share price. With Upwork’s bold expansion and shifting market sentiment, there is now the question of whether the current stock price underestimates future growth, or if it already reflects much of Lifted’s potential impact.

Most Popular Narrative: 20% Undervalued

According to the community narrative, Upwork is considered significantly undervalued, with analysts projecting a fair value that is roughly a fifth higher than current trading levels. The narrative highlights a convergence of AI-powered product investment, growing enterprise penetration, and cost efficiencies as key drivers behind this positive outlook.

"Upwork's accelerated investment in AI-powered talent matching and workflow automation is already increasing average spend per contract and improving user experience for both clients and freelancers. This provides a clear path to higher revenue and improved gross margins as these enhancements scale."

What is lifting this bold price target? The narrative points to changes beneath the surface, such as smarter automation, rising stickiness with big clients, and bolder financial projections than you might expect. Are you wondering what assumptions make analysts believe future earnings will justify a premium to today's price? The details behind the projected revenue and profit trends might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $18.70 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and slow new client acquisition could limit Upwork’s growth. These factors may challenge even the most optimistic outlooks.

Find out about the key risks to this Upwork narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Perspective

To test the earlier view, the SWS DCF model takes a fresh approach by estimating Upwork’s worth based on its future cash flows. This method also sees value that the market might be missing, but can numbers alone tell the whole story?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
UPWK Discounted Cash Flow as at Aug 2025
UPWK Discounted Cash Flow as at Aug 2025
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Upwork for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Upwork Narrative

If the narrative above does not match your perspective or you want to dig into the numbers firsthand, you can build your own view in just a few minutes and do it your way.

A great starting point for your Upwork research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.