Results: Pop Mart International Group Limited Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
Shareholders of Pop Mart International Group Limited (HKG:9992) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 18% to HK$316 following its latest half-year results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of CN¥14b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Pop Mart International Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of CN¥3.44 per share, a notable 12% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Pop Mart International Group from 31 analysts is for revenues of CN¥32.2b in 2025. If met, it would imply a substantial 44% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 55% to CN¥7.93. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥30.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥5.96 in 2025. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a great increase in earnings per share in particular.
See our latest analysis for Pop Mart International Group
It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Pop Mart International Group 11% to HK$333on the back of these upgrades. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Pop Mart International Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$411 and the most bearish at HK$170 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Pop Mart International Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 108% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 41% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 15% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Pop Mart International Group to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Pop Mart International Group's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Pop Mart International Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.