League of Nations Minsheng Securities: China's ship leasing industry continues to increase in global share, optimistic about the subsequent development of ship leasing companies

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report saying that in the first half of 2025, China's ships completed 24.13 million dwt, or -3.5% compared with the same period, and the global share reached 51.7%. The number of new orders received reached 44.33 million DWT, accounting for 68.3% of the global share. Overall, at present, China's ship leasing industry is developing steadily, expanding steadily in scale, and its global share continues to rise. Subsequent green transformation and replacement of old ships can effectively guarantee the speed of table expansion, compounded by subsequent interest rate cuts. The bank believes that the future development prospects of the ship leasing industry are still good.

The main views of the League of Nations Minsheng Securities are as follows:

Inventory: The size of China's leasing merchant fleet is expanding steadily, and the global share continues to increase. Judging from the stock, the size of China's leasing merchant fleet is steadily expanding

By the end of June 2025, the total tonnage of the fleet operated by Chinese leasers reached 159 million tons, +4.55% compared to the beginning of the year; the total tonnage of handheld orders reached 121 million tons, +9.42% compared to the beginning of the year. By ship type, bulk carriers, container ships, and gas carriers account for a relatively high proportion. At the same time as the scale is expanding, the share of Chinese leasing companies in the world continues to increase. Currently, the total tonnage of China's leasing merchant fleet accounts for 9.30% of the global fleet, accounting for +0.2 pct compared to the end of 2024. The increase in share is mainly driven by bulk carriers and gas carriers.

Incremental: Both the new launch and expiration process have slowed

In terms of launch, in the first half of 2025, Chinese lessors added 9.4 million tons of total ship leasing, which is only 35.7% of the annual increase in 2024. It is expected to be mainly affected by the “301 investigation.” Newly launched ships accounted for 39% and 61% of the total tonnage, respectively, and used ships accounted for +8.8 pct compared to 2024. The share of operating leases among newly launched ships increased. Financial leases and operating leases accounted for 71.7% and 28.3% of newly launched ships in the first half of 2025, respectively, and operating leases accounted for +11.6 pct compared to 2024. In terms of maturity, the total tonnage corresponding to ships due in the first half of 2025 is 5.4 million tons, which is only 30.34% of the total volume due in 2024.

Green transformation: the proportion of energy-efficient ships has further increased

Looking at domestic leasers, as of the end of June 2025, the proportion of energy-efficient ships in China's leasing merchant fleet was 80%, accounting for +1pct compared to the end of 2024. By ship type, the share of energy-saving tankers and cruise/passenger ships increased significantly. At the end of June 2025, the share of energy-saving ships was 77% and 90% respectively, accounting for +3 pct and +5 pct respectively at the end of 2024. Looking at the global fleet, as of the end of June 2025, the proportion of energy-efficient ships in the global fleet was 51%, compared with +1pct at the end of 2024. Among them, the share of energy-saving ships such as bulk carriers, oil tankers, and gas carriers all increased slightly.

In terms of ship age: The proportion of older ships has increased

In terms of inventory, as of the end of 2025H1, ships aged 15 and above accounted for 10.1% of total tonnage, accounting for +1.5pct compared to the end of 2024. Corresponding to this, the proportion of ships in 0-4 and 5-9 was 44.7% and 25.5%, respectively, compared to -0.9 pct and -0.6 pct at the end of 2024, respectively. In terms of increments, ships aged 15 years and above accounted for 18.2% of the total tonnage of new financial leases in the first half of 2025, +7.3 pct compared to the end of 2024; ships aged 15 years and above accounted for 7.7% of the total tonnage in the new operating leases, and there were almost no ships 15 years or older in the new operating leases added in 2024.

Risk warning: Tariff policy uncertainty, geographical conflicts, and the risk of declining rents.