TrendForce: The global LED lighting market continued to shrink in the first half of the year, and smart and high-value-added products became a growth highlight

The Zhitong Finance App learned that TrendForce analysis indicates that in the first half of 2025, the global LED general lighting industry did not recover as expected, the new construction and installation market continued to be fatigued, the growth rate of the stock replacement market slowed, and the overall market size continued to shrink. TrendForce estimates that the LED lighting market will drop 4.4% to $53.573 billion for the whole year.

Furthermore, TrendForce observed that although overall demand in the lighting industry was sluggish, LED internals showed significant differentiation. LED's high light efficiency, human demand performance for healthy lighting, smart lighting, and circular lighting products in the first half of 2025 was a key driving force for revenue contributions and stabilizing market share for some terminal lighting manufacturers. At the same time, the specialized plant lighting market is benefiting from the continued recovery in demand for energy saving in Europe, hedging the downward pressure on the market in some regions.

The LED general lighting market continues to decline, and some application segments unleash growth potential

In the first half of 2025 (1H25), the construction industry, which is closely related to the LED lighting industry, continued to be sluggish, and new construction, installation and renovation projects all slowed down. Despite demand for LED replacement in the stock market and an increase in demand for high-value-added products such as high light efficiency, healthy and comfortable lighting, smart lighting, and circular lighting, the overall market conditions are still showing a weak trend of “falling volume and price”, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend in output value in the global LED lighting market.

Looking at products and applications, TrendForce points out that under the dual effects of high energy costs and the promotion of new policies, some segment applications with low LED penetration rates in the stock market are expected to release incremental demand in 2025. Among them, there are opportunities to reconfigure lighting products in the fields of outdoor lighting, industrial lighting, and emergency lighting, which is expected to continue to drive a steady increase in LED street lights, LED patio lights, and LED floodlights (Floodlights) shipments.

In the new installation market, driven by the boom in artificial intelligence (AI) digital infrastructure construction, demand for related lighting products remains stable, and shipments of products such as LED Light Strips (LED Light Strips) are expected to maintain steady growth.

The penetration of smart lighting is accelerating, and smart home and smart city applications are driving market growth

Driven by energy saving and emission reduction policies, users' dynamic dimming and color mixing, and the human pursuit of healthy lighting, the LED smart lighting market is penetrating at an accelerated pace. The technology side has benefited from reduced development costs, the introduction of next-generation compatible protocols such as Matter and the integration of AI algorithms. The product was quickly brought to market, and overall shipments continued to grow.

As expected by TrendForce at the beginning of the year, consumer market demand improved in the first half of 2025 (1H25), and the smart home lighting market rebounded strongly, driving demand for LED smart bulbs, LED smart ceiling lamps, LED smart floor lamps, and LED smart light strips. Looking ahead to the second half of 2025 (2H25), the government will increase investment in infrastructure construction, and smart city development has the opportunity to drive the growth potential of IoT LED outdoor lighting. TrendForce estimates that the global LED smart lighting market will be 11.573 billion US dollars in 2025, an annual increase of 19.2%.

The plant lighting market is expected to maintain moderate growth in response to European support

Affected by changes in the international situation, demand for new additions and replacement of agricultural lighting is under pressure, which particularly affects the replacement cycle for special economic crops. In addition, new greenhouse and vertical farm projects around the world have also been delayed. However, in contrast, the European market maintained strong growth in the first half of 2025 (1H25), driven by energy-saving regulations and the introduction of high-efficiency photosynthetic photonic flux efficiency (PPF/W:PPE) products, effectively coping with negative impacts in North America and other regions. TrendForce estimates that in 2025, the LED plant lighting market will reach 1,366 billion US dollars, an annual increase of 3.9%.

On the product side, according to TrendForce, dynamic and controllable intelligent LED plant growth lights were gradually introduced into application fields such as greenhouses and vertical farms, and gradually became mainstream. The proportion of products equipped with 3 to 4 channels of adjustable spectra is increased, and they are deeply integrated with intelligent control systems to promote energy saving and accurate planting.

The decline in revenue of leading manufacturers has narrowed, and industry consolidation has accelerated

According to the latest data from TrendForce, in 2024, the top 20 global lighting manufacturers had revenue of 23.883 billion US dollars, a decrease of 5.3% per year, and market concentration continued to increase. The top five were Signify (Signify), Acuity, Panasonic (Panasonic), LEDVANCE, and Zumtobel (Aldeburg), which had a stable ranking; Fagerhult (Fagerhult) benefited from strategic acquisitions and rose to ninth place.

According to TrendForce, demand in the global lighting market was still weak in the first half of 2025 (1H25), but the share of high light efficiency, human health, intelligent and circular lighting products increased, and the revenue structure of some companies improved. In addition, the revenue decline of Japanese manufacturers has narrowed sharply in dollar terms. TrendForce estimates that the revenue of the top 20 global lighting manufacturers will drop to 22.947 billion US dollars in 2025, a decrease of 3.9% per year.

At the same time, the pace of industry integration is accelerating, and large manufacturers are integrating with brands through acquisitions (such as LEDvance's acquisition of Loblicht) to strengthen one-stop solution capabilities and regional market share. TrendForce believes that the pattern of strong players will continue, and market concentration is expected to increase further. In the future, the corporate strategy will focus on environmentally friendly products and digital lighting solutions, and accelerate the transformation to intelligent control systems that integrate AI and sensors.

LED lighting packaging prices are falling at an accelerated pace, and international brand adjustment strategies are seizing market dominance

According to TrendForce market research and analysis, the average price decline in the LED packaging market increased in the first half of 2025 (1H25), mainly due to European and American international brand manufacturers adjusting product structures and price strategies, optimizing costs, and speeding up the introduction of cost-effective solutions. Major LED packaging companies such as Cree LED and ams OSRAM are changing their market strategies, taking advantage of technical advantages to adopt low-cost solutions or strategies to broaden product parameters to seize market share in response to terminal manufacturers' demand to reduce costs and increase efficiency and packaging factories' price competition pressure.

Looking ahead to the second half of 2025 (2H25), terminal manufacturers are cautious in preparing goods, the visibility of orders from packaging manufacturers is low, and downward pressure on prices continues. TrendForce estimates LED lighting production will drop to US$3.325 billion in 2025, a decrease of 7.6% per year.