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Natera (NTRA) Is Up 14.1% After Raising Revenue Guidance and Launching New Prenatal Test – Has the Bull Case Changed?

Simply Wall St · 08/13 09:12
  • Natera, Inc. recently reported its second quarter 2025 financial results, showing US$546.6 million in revenue and raising its annual outlook by US$80 million at the midpoint, with ongoing advances in oncology and the launch of its Fetal Focus prenatal test.
  • A significant insight is the company's ability to raise guidance while maintaining stable operating expense forecasts, highlighting confidence in scaling revenue from new products and expanded test volumes.
  • We'll explore how Natera's robust revenue growth and heightened guidance, fueled by strong oncology test adoption, shape its updated investment narrative.

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Natera Investment Narrative Recap

To own Natera stock, you need to believe that advances in molecular diagnostics, especially through innovation in oncology and women’s health, will drive sustained test adoption and revenue growth. The recent uplift in annual revenue guidance, fueled by continued momentum in new product launches like the Fetal Focus prenatal test, supports confidence in near-term catalysts such as expanding test volumes. However, the ongoing challenge of achieving full reimbursement coverage and optimizing test pricing remains the most immediate risk, and the latest news does not materially change this dynamic. Among recent developments, the launch of the Fetal Focus noninvasive prenatal test stands out as especially relevant. It directly supports the women’s health growth narrative, addresses a well-recognized gap in genetic screening when partner samples are unavailable, and may be pivotal in boosting the company’s average selling price as reimbursement expands, which ties back to the largest short-term catalyst. Yet, in contrast, investors should be aware that achieving broad reimbursement for new tests is not guaranteed and presents...

Read the full narrative on Natera (it's free!)

Natera's narrative projects $2.8 billion in revenue and $81.7 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 15.4% yearly revenue growth and a $271.5 million increase in earnings from the current -$189.8 million.

Uncover how Natera's forecasts yield a $191.55 fair value, a 20% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

NTRA Community Fair Values as at Aug 2025
NTRA Community Fair Values as at Aug 2025

Six individual fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range widely from US$49.54 to US$194.23 per share. With revenue growth driven by new product adoption, opinions among market participants can differ considerably so reviewing several alternative viewpoints is essential.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Natera - why the stock might be worth as much as 22% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Natera Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

  • A great starting point for your Natera research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
  • Our free Natera research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Natera's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.