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Why Rayonier (RYN) Is Up 9.9% After New Zealand Exit and Surge in Timber Earnings

Simply Wall St · 08/13 06:37
  • Earlier this month, Rayonier Inc. reported second quarter 2025 earnings showing a significant increase in net income, driven by the completed sale of its New Zealand joint venture for US$710 million and a robust performance in Pacific Northwest Timber and Real Estate segments.
  • This asset sale has allowed Rayonier to focus on its core U.S. operations, strengthen its balance sheet, and pursue capital returns to shareholders through buybacks and potential debt reduction.
  • We'll examine how Rayonier's exit from New Zealand operations and resulting operational focus could reshape its investment narrative and future prospects.

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Rayonier Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Rayonier shareholder today, you need to believe in the value of a streamlined U.S.-focused timberland and real estate portfolio, with the recent New Zealand exit allowing for renewed capital deployment and potential operational upside. The completed sale has freed up resources for share buybacks and debt reduction, but the biggest short-term catalyst remains further capital returns, while the chief risk is continued pressure in the Southern Timber segment; the impact of the sale on these is meaningful but not fully settled yet.

The company's August 8 announcement of completing its share buyback program, repurchasing 1,567,928 shares for US$37.72 million, directly connects to these themes, capitalizing on the liquidity boost from the New Zealand divestiture and aligning with investor interest in immediate capital returns.

In contrast, investors should not overlook the ongoing uncertainties and risks in Rayonier’s Southern Timber segment, particularly as...

Read the full narrative on Rayonier (it's free!)

Rayonier’s outlook anticipates $515.6 million in revenue and $97.1 million in earnings by 2028. This assumes a 25.2% annual revenue decline and a $261.5 million decrease in earnings from current earnings of $358.6 million.

Uncover how Rayonier's forecasts yield a $29.86 fair value, a 14% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

RYN Community Fair Values as at Aug 2025
RYN Community Fair Values as at Aug 2025

Four perspectives from the Simply Wall St Community set fair value between US$3.37 and US$29.86, capturing wide disagreement about Rayonier’s outlook. With revenue and earnings forecast to decline, you can see why many investors seek alternate views on the company’s future.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Rayonier - why the stock might be worth as much as 14% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Rayonier Narrative

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.