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Viasat (VSAT) Is Up 13.5% After Defense Unit Spinoff Call and Major Gov't Contract Win – Has The Bull Case Changed?

Simply Wall St · 08/01 10:50
  • On July 31, 2025, Carronade Capital Management urged Viasat to separate its Defense and Advanced Technologies unit, following news that Viasat secured a significant multi-million dollar U.S. Government contract for next-generation data encryption.
  • This push highlights both growing investor interest in unlocking value from the defense segment and the business’s strengthened position in secure communications technology.
  • We’ll now consider how calls to split off the defense business, following a major government award, reshape Viasat’s investment narrative.

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Viasat Investment Narrative Recap

To see value in being a Viasat shareholder right now, you have to believe that demand for secure satellite communications and defense technologies can offset the company’s current profitability issues and slow growth in traditional broadband segments. The latest activist call to separate Viasat’s Defense and Advanced Technologies business, especially following the major government encryption contract, puts near-term focus on this segment as a potential growth driver. However, it does not change the critical short-term catalysts around new satellite launches, nor does it materially reduce the company’s reliance on high-debt financing at this stage.

Viasat’s recent U.S. Government award to build a next-generation Ethernet Data Encryptor directly reinforces the defense segment’s importance, boosting its credentials in high-value, secure communications, a key area highlighted by the activist investor as underappreciated in the current share price. While this supports long-term growth potential in defense, near-term progress in deleveraging and integrating new satellite capacity remain central to Viasat’s overall outlook.

By contrast, investors should be aware that persistent fixed broadband revenue declines could...

Read the full narrative on Viasat (it's free!)

Viasat's narrative projects $4.9 billion revenue and $526.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 2.7% yearly revenue growth and a $1.1 billion earnings increase from current earnings of -$575.0 million.

Uncover how Viasat's forecasts yield a $18.29 fair value, a 11% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

VSAT Community Fair Values as at Aug 2025
VSAT Community Fair Values as at Aug 2025

Six members of the Simply Wall St Community valued Viasat between US$8.40 and US$83.96 per share, showing broad differences in outlook. As opinions vary widely, the ongoing shift toward defense technologies continues to be watched closely for its impact on revenue growth and overall business direction.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Viasat - why the stock might be worth 49% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Viasat Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

  • A great starting point for your Viasat research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
  • Our free Viasat research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Viasat's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.