CITIC Securities: Heavy truck exports “not weak in the off-season” still contribute high profits and room for growth to the industry

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that looking ahead to 2025Q3, heavy trucks will experience a “not weak season” phenomenon this year. National 4 “trade-in” local policies were put in place in 2025Q2 for the most important reason: provincial policies, which account for about 67% of the “National 4” stock, were released from mid-April to early June. It is predicted that the sales volume of the heavy truck industry in Q3/Q4 2025 will be 270,000 or 240,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of +51% and +10%. Furthermore, exports still contribute high profits and room for growth to the industry. The structure of heavy truck exports changed significantly in the first half of this year. The sales ratio of exports to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa increased dramatically, and the growth rate in the African region exceeded 30%.

In the medium to long term, there is no need to be pessimistic about China's heavy truck export prospects. Moreover, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's heavy truck export customs prices declined only slightly in 2025H1, so there is no need to worry too much about profitability. As far as the industry pattern is concerned, although new energy generation is unstoppable, the concentration of the heavy truck industry has increased to 91%. The stability of the heavy truck industry pattern exceeds market expectations, and it is expected that high-quality development within the industry will be achieved.

CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:

Local policies are concentrated in 25Q2, which is expected to be an important reason for the “low season” of heavy trucks in 25Q3

According to documents from provincial transportation departments and truck house data, Hebei, Sichuan, Hubei and other places account for about 41% of the “National 4” heavy truck stock, and their policies are issued from mid-April to early May; while places such as Shandong, Guangxi, and Hainan account for about 26%, they only issued policies from mid-May to early June. With the implementation of policies in various provinces, the year-on-year growth rate of heavy truck retail sales in March-June was getting higher and higher. Judging that the effects of the policy will be an important reason for the “low season” in the third quarter of this year.

According to data from the China Automobile Association, the heavy truck industry sold 98,000 units in June 2025, +37% year-on-year, +10% month-on-month; cumulative sales volume in 2025 (January-June, same below) was 539,000 units, +7% year-on-year. According to China Automobile Center data, retail sales in the heavy truck industry in June 2025 were 69,000 units, +47% year over year, +10% month on month; cumulative sales volume in 2025 was 355,000 units, +18% year on year. It is predicted that the heavy truck industry will sell about 270,000/240,000 units in Q3/Q4 in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of +51% and +10%. The estimated annual sales volume of heavy trucks is about 1.05 million units, +16% year over year; of these, domestic sales volume is about 730,000 units, +20% year over year, and export sales volume is about 320,000 units, +10% year over year.

The growth rate of non-Russian regions in 2025H1 is still over 30%, and China's heavy truck overseas market share continues to rise

According to China Automobile Association data, the cumulative sales volume of 2025H1 heavy truck exports was 156,000 units, +3% over the same period last year. However, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, regions other than Russia exported 160,000 vehicles, +33% over the same period; the rapid increase in sales mainly came from non-Russian regions (Vietnam, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, etc.), and the regional structure of heavy truck exports changed significantly in 2025. China's heavy truck exports to Asia accounted for 51% of 2025H1 sales, with the increase mainly coming from Southeast Asia (accounting for 26%, +7pcs year on year) and the Middle East region (15%, +5pcts year on year), all of which reached record highs.

Furthermore, the share of sales in the African region also increased to 36% (+9pcts year over year). On the one hand, many overseas regions such as Africa lack local production capacity, and Chinese heavy trucks have room to increase their market share; on the other hand, Latin America and European regions other than the European Union still have potential to enter. Although China's heavy truck exports are currently small and still in the introduction period, due to the large market capacity, once a breakthrough in market share is achieved, it will contribute a high volume of sales. In the medium to long term, there is no need to be pessimistic about China's heavy truck export prospects.

Customs export prices are relatively stable, so there is no need to worry about profitability

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the average export price of H1 heavy trucks in 2025 was 301,000 yuan, -8% year-on-year; of this, after deducting the Russian market, 292,000 yuan, -2% year-on-year. By region, the average price of 2025H1 exports to Asia was 303,000 yuan, -5%; the African market was 273,000 yuan, -2% year over year; and the Latin American market was 367,000 yuan, -2% year over year. Judging from the above data, the average export price of the 2025H1 heavy truck declined slightly, but the magnitude was small. In particular, from the perspective of the General Administration of Customs data, there was no glimpse of the price war situation in Africa and other places. Although the average price in the Russian region is high, the corresponding heavy truck costs are also high, so there is no need to worry about the profits of heavy truck OEMs.

New energy and natural gas trends diverge, and economy determines sales structure

According to China Automobile Center data, the 2025H1 heavy gas truck penetration rate was 26%, -10pcts year on year; while the 2025H1 new energy heavy truck penetration rate was 23%, +13pcts year on year. The trend of new energy and natural gas heavy trucks is so different, and economy is an important influencing factor. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the average price ratio of 2025H1 liquefied natural gas/diesel was 61.5%, -5.6 pcts year on year. The narrowing of oil and gas price differentials has led to a decline in the economic advantage of natural gas vehicles. Furthermore, under policy subsidies, the increase in the cost performance ratio of new energy vehicles has also squeezed the share of natural gas vehicles.

For example, the number of new energy heavy trucks licensed in Shanghai in 2025H1 is 12,000, which is a significant increase over 2024. This is mainly due to the fact that on August 1, 2024, Shanghai issued the “Administrative Measures on Subsidy Funds to Encourage the Elimination and Renewal of National Four Diesel Vehicles”, which proposes a subsidy of 630 yuan/kWh for new energy heavy trucks with a capacity of at least 280 kWh. If calculated based on the 400 kWh charge capacity of the bike, the subsidy for bicycles can be as high as 252,000 yuan. This subsidy is stronger than the one issued by the central government, which has triggered the centralized licensing of new energy heavy trucks in Shanghai. Therefore, it can be seen that the subsidy policy enhances the economy of new energy and is an important driving force for the growth of new energy heavy truck sales.

The concentration of the industry pattern has increased beyond expectations and is expected to achieve high-quality development

According to China Automobile Center data, the top 5 2025H1 NEV heavy trucks market share are: Xugong Automobile 16%, Sany Automobile 16%, China FAW 13%, Sinotruk 12%, and Shaanxi Automobile Group 11%. On the one hand, Sany Motors and XCMG Motors are still at the top of the industry's market share as “new forces in heavy trucks”; on the other hand, the share of traditional leaders in the new energy market increased rapidly. The total share of the top 5 traditional leaders in the new energy market in 2022 was only 27%, but 2025H1 has risen to 52%.

Also, it is worth noting that in the process of converting heavy trucks to new energy, although many new players have emerged in the heavy truck industry, in reality, the concentration of the heavy truck industry continues to increase. According to data from the China Automobile Association, the CR5 for heavy trucks reached 88% in 2024, and the CR5 for the 2025H1 heavy truck industry reached 91%. The stability of the industry pattern exceeds market expectations, and it is expected to achieve high-quality development within the industry.

investment strategy

Heavy truck sales are expected to be around 1.05 million units in 2025, +16% year over year; of these, domestic sales volume is about 730,000 units, +20% year over year, and export sales volume is about 320,000 units, +10% year over year. We are optimistic about the high-quality growth of the industry under internal and external resonance, and continue to recommend key companies in the heavy truck industry.

risk factors

The macroeconomic recovery fell short of expectations; the “trade-in” policy for heavy trucks fell short of expectations; freight rates continued to be sluggish; exports faced geopolitical risks; and the penetration rate of new energy sources increased or affected the industry pattern and profitability.