CITIC Securities: The PCB orthogonal backplane fully fits the AI server development trend, and potential market space is expected to open up in the future

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report stating that as a potential solution to the bandwidth bottleneck between computing units and network units in AI computing power clusters, PCB orthogonal backboards have advantages in terms of speed, integration, heat dissipation, stability, and wiring. Since its oversized size+super-high-rise design far exceeds conventional products, it may bring about a significant increase in PCB unit value and become the core driving force behind the industry's long-term tight supply and demand. PCB manufacturers with leading technical capabilities are expected to benefit first. It is recommended to prefer leading companies with large AI computing power supply chain exposure and clear customer import expectations, and focus on companies that have room for improvement in PB valuation as AI releases high ROE output value.

CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:

As computing power, speed, and concentration continue to improve, the cabinet PCB orthogonal backplane solution is expected to be implemented at an accelerated pace

PCB orthogonal backplane scheme, that is, the computing node and exchange node in the cabinet are directly connected in an orthogonal manner through the PCB. According to the GPU roadmap announced by Nvidia at the GTC conference in March 2025, it will successively launch Rubin NVL144 and Rubin Ultra NVL576 cabinets at 26H2 and 27H2. Among them, the GPU computing tray of the NVL576 cabinet will use a 90-degree rotation design to replace the traditional copper cable backplane through a PCB backplane to achieve interconnection between the GPU and NVSwitch in the rack. This change is mainly aimed at solving the challenge of cabling in a more compact space and solving the bandwidth bottleneck between computing units and network units in AI computing power clusters (requiring TB-level interconnection support).

CITIC Securities believes that Nvidia may officially introduce the PCB orthogonal backplane in the Rubin Ultra NVL576 cabinet. Compared with the current high-speed copper cable backplane connection scheme of the GB200 NVL72 cabinet, its advantages are reflected in:

1) Rate: Compared with copper cables, which are limited by physical characteristics and iterate slowly, PCB boards can continuously improve transmission rate through material and process upgrades; 2) Integration: PCB orthogonal backboards have better integration and are more advantageous in processing, manufacturing, installation and maintenance; 3) Heat dissipation/stability: PCBs have more prominent thermal effects, heat dissipation, and stability advantages, which is conducive to the deployment of more intensive computing power infrastructure; 4) Wiring: PCBs can achieve large-scale wiring and interconnection in a limited space by increasing the number of layers and reducing line widths and line spacing.

Judging from the demand trend, the PCB orthogonal backplane fully fits the future development trend of AI servers with higher computing power, faster interconnection, and higher concentration. As related materials and processing processes gradually mature, it is expected that they will gradually be applied starting with Nvidia Rubin series cabinets.

How do you view the potential market space brought to PCBs by orthogonal backboards? The potential market demand for 2027-28 is estimated to be 800-20 billion yuan, which is expected to increase demand by 12-29% compared to 2026

CITIC Securities believes that PCB orthogonal backboards are expected to be gradually implemented in 2027-28. Judging from the initial design plan, the Nvidia PCB orthogonal backboard may use an ultra-high multi-layer design with more than 70 layers, and use M9 grade copper clad plates, which significantly increases the CCL usage/specification and PCB processing difficulty. This kind of PCB with 70 layers or more will consume a large amount of high-speed copper-clad panels due to its oversized size and ultra-high number of layers, and far exceeds conventional products in terms of yield control, impedance consistency, heat dissipation design, etc., which may lead to a significant increase in PCB unit value.

Taking the NVL576 cabinet as an example, it is estimated that the total PCB value of a single cabinet will reach about 80-1 million yuan. Assuming that 10,000 to 20,000 cabinets are shipped annually, the corresponding market space is about 8 to 20 billion yuan. The global AI PCB market demand is expected to reach 69.3 billion yuan in 2026, and corresponding orthogonal backboards are expected to increase demand by 12-29%. In the future, if Nvidia successfully leads the industry to promote the application of PCB orthogonal backboards, and other ASIC computing power vendors further improve AI server clustering and is expected to follow up on the PCB orthogonal backboard solutions, the industry is expected to release greater incremental demand.

investment strategy

PCB manufacturers with leading technical capabilities are expected to benefit first, and are also expected to become the core driving force of the industry's long-term tight supply and demand. PCB orthogonal backboards have a long development cycle, are difficult to process, have leading process capabilities and production capacity reserves. At the same time, a few leading PCB companies that cooperate closely with leading computing power manufacturers are expected to take the lead in entering the supply chain and benefit as a priority. This process is also expected to push the PCB/CCL industry to upgrade to ultra-high-specification, high-value-added products and reshape the competitive threshold. Overall, in the PCB field, we recommend preferring leading companies with large AI computing power supply chain exposure and clear customer import expectations, and focus on companies that have room for improvement in PB valuation as AI releases high ROE output value. Recommended attention: 1) PCB end, 2) copper-clad plate end.

risk factors

Macroeconomic fluctuations and geopolitical risks; the risk of increased competition in the PCB industry; the risk of large fluctuations in raw material prices; the volume of new products from leading overseas computing power falls short of expectations; demand growth in the AI market falls short of expectations; the risk of technological change and product iteration; the risk of policy regulation and data privacy; and customer concentration overtakes high risks.