UBS reveals Apple (AAPL.US) folding screen: iPhone Fold will launch in 2026, supply chain cost optimization is the key

The Zhitong Finance App learned that UBS's latest research report indicates that Apple's (AAPL.US) first foldable iPhone Fold is expected to be officially launched in the second half of 2026. Although the market generally expects the price of this product to be in the range of 2,000 to 2,400 US dollars, UBS found through supply chain analysis that if Apple makes a breakthrough in bill of materials (BOM) cost control, the actual average price may drop to the level of 2,000 US dollars, which is in direct competition with the pricing of the Galaxy Z Fold7 released by Samsung this month.

A team of UBS analysts (led by Jimmy Yoon) emphasized in the in-depth investor report that supply chain strategy will be a key factor in determining product market performance. According to a special smartphone survey conducted by UBS Evidence Labs in the second quarter of 2025, although 18% of iPhone users said they were willing to pay more than $2,000 for a foldable model, up to 60% of respondents believed that the average price would need to drop to the $1,500 to $1,700 range to generate purchasing motivation.

This consumer mentality threshold echoes UBS's estimate of the initial shipment volume of the iPhone Fold. Within the supply chain, sales volume is generally expected to be between 10 million and 15 million units in the first year, but analysts pointed out that if the pricing strategy successfully breaks through the consumer mentality, the demand scale may achieve room for growth of more than 30%.

The report specifically mentioned that the supply chain management system established by Apple over a long period of time will give full play to its core advantages. As the maturity of foldable technology increases and the average price of clamshell models naturally declines, Apple is expected to further reduce costs through large-scale effects and create room for future product iterations. From a medium- to long-term perspective, this ability to optimize costs will be directly transformed into a driving force for increased market share.

UBS also sorted out supply chain companies that may benefit from mass production of the iPhone Fold, focusing on core partners such as Lansi Technology, Samsung Electronics, LG Display (LPL.US), and Hon Hai Precision. These companies have technical barriers in screen modules, precision structural parts, and machine assembly, and their production capacity coordination will be an important support for Apple to achieve cost control goals.