From the East to Southeast Asia, Chinese gold and jewelry enters the “fast track” of going overseas

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that Southeast Asia is becoming an incremental blue ocean for the gold and jewelry industry, and Chinese brands are entering a period of strategic opportunity when going overseas. Economic and demographic dividends resonate with major Southeast Asian countries, and opportunities for consumption upgrades have emerged. The demand structure of the Southeast Asian gold and jewelry industry is highly compatible with Chinese brands, and cultural closeness+process iteration catalyzes the release of gold jewellery demand. Chinese brands have already entered the acceleration channel. The leading brands have many years of overseas operation experience and strategic cards, opening up space for overseas growth in two steps: direct management and franchise. Maintain the gold and jewellery industry's “better than the market” rating.

Comprehensively sort out the two main investment lines: 1) Preferred performance has grown rapidly. The Southeast Asian market has already landed in stores. Along with the single-store profit model, there is great potential for future store expansion. 2) Focus on industry leaders, have an early overseas layout and rich operating experience. Future plans will accelerate overseas layout and further open up room for growth.

CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:

The Southeast Asian gold and jewelry market is developing rapidly and has become an important growth pole for the global gold and jewelry industry

① The disposable income of residents in the six core Southeast Asian countries continues to rise and the population structure is younger: The World Bank expects the GDP of the six Southeast Asian countries to maintain steady growth in the future, and the economic growth rate of Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia is higher than that of China in the next 3 years; the population structure is younger. According to CEIC, the six core Southeast Asian countries account for 63% of the total population under 40 in 2022, which is similar to the population structure of China in 2006.

② The growth in the size of the gold and jewelry market in Southeast Asian countries was particularly prominent: in 2024, the market size of the six core Southeast Asian countries reached 11.6 billion US dollars/year over year +7%, and the CAGR was 7.6% in 2021-2024. By country, the growth rate of the gold and jewelry market in the six Southeast Asian countries far exceeds that of more mature markets such as China, the US, Japan, and South Korea. In 2024, the industry scale of Indonesia/Singapore/Malaysia/Vietnam/Thailand increased 11.4%/7.6%/4.8%/3.9%/3.5% year-on-year.

Traditional culture+emotional value catalyzes the release of jewellery consumption, and risk aversion drives the growth in demand for investment funds

① Singapore: An international high-end jewellery consumer hub, the high-end jewellery market concentration is low and the competitive pattern is scattered. High-end luxury jewelry accounts for a significantly higher share of consumption; luxury jewelry consumption is mainly in offline stores. Demand for gold jewellery has declined significantly in recent years due to high gold prices, and demand for investment gold has peaked since 2010.

② Malaysia: The jewelry market is growing steadily, and leading luxury jewelry groups are expanding their share. The products are mainly 22K plain gold jewelry, and the share of jewelry in the accessories category remains stable. Gold jewellery consumption is under pressure in 2025Q1, and consumer demand for investing in gold bars and coins is hot.

③ Thailand: Prefers 23K and gemstone categories. The market size and competitive pattern of leading jewelry brands remain stable. As the world's core area for colored stone processing, the share of accessory jewelry is expanding. Gold jewellery consumption has shrunk in recent years. High gold prices in 2025Q1 have further curtailed demand for gold jewellery, and the popularity of gold bar and coin investment continues to rise.

④ Vietnam: The market size is stable, and demand for investment and accessory jewelry is showing an upward trend. Consumer demand for fashion and personalized products drove the diversification of the jewelry market; after the epidemic, jewellery consumption recovered rapidly, then showed an overall downward trend. Consumption of gold bars and coins in 2025Q1 was curtailed by the sell-off of gold by the Central Bank of Vietnam.

⑤ Indonesia: The market size is growing rapidly, consumer demand for jewellery is stable, and demand for gold bars is bursting out. Gold jewelry consumption has continued to shrink in recent years. Gold consumption was further curtailed by the rise in gold prices in 2025Q1, and enthusiasm for gold bar and coin investment was high.

⑥ Philippines: Models remain stable, prefer traditional gold jewelry, and online channels account for a significant share of sales. Mainly based on traditional wedding and religious needs, the gold and jewelry consumer group has expanded to Gen Z. Young people are increasing their demand for diversified jewelry, and the market share of accessories and jewelry is high.

When the brand went overseas, Southeast Asia was a strategic springboard

With its high cultural affinity, preference for gold products, and rapid economic growth, the Southeast Asian market has become the first stop for Chinese gold and jewelry brands to go overseas. China's gold and jewelry design and manufacturing processes continue to be updated and iterated, and its international influence continues to grow. Overseas consumers' ability to appreciate traditional Chinese crafts such as filigree and ancient gold is a favorable prerequisite for Chinese gold and jewelry brands to enter the international market.

① Old-fashioned Gold: Singapore won its first battle overseas, and there is plenty of potential room for overseas growth. According to the company's prospectus, the company expects to enter the Japanese market by 2026.

② Chow Tai Fook: Southeast Asia store sales performance was outstanding. Store upgrade+core regional expansion promoted brand transformation. FY25 has a total of 37 overseas stores and a total of 23 stores in Southeast Asia. The FY25 annual report shows that the company will actively promote an international development strategy in the future.

③ Lukfook Group: Overseas markets have maintained high growth, and plans to invest more resources to expand overseas markets. FY25 has a total of 31 overseas stores (17 direct-run stores, 14 franchise stores), and a total of 12 stores in Southeast Asia.

④ Chao Hongji: Excellent operating conditions in overseas markets, speeding up the launch of Southeast Asian stores. As of 2025M6, the company has already landed 4 stores in Southeast Asia. The company's performance conference stated that future overseas regions plan to expand stores mainly through a franchise model, and it is expected to land stores in Singapore in 2025.

⑤ Yuyuan Garden Co., Ltd.: Various businesses are actively expanding overseas markets, and the “Old Temple” has gone overseas to speed up implementation. The company's performance exchange meeting stated that it plans to deeply cultivate the Southeast Asian market in the future and use Thailand as an opportunity to quickly open an “old temple” store layout in Southeast Asia.

Risk factors:

1) Market competition intensifies risks; 2) macroeconomic fluctuations and the risk of weak consumption capacity; 3) the risk of overseas expansion falling short of expectations; 4) The improvement in brand product strength and brand power falls short of expectations; 5) Changes in marketing channels.