Amazon (AMZN.US) Prime Day Sale Starts Today! US Consumer Resilience Is Being Tested by Trump's Tariff Policy

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Amazon (AMZN.US) will launch the 2025 Prime Day membership day promotion from July 8 to 11. However, this big promotion is being hit by the trade war initiated by US President Trump — changing tariff policies have prompted some brands to withdraw from this summer promotion, and some consumers have hinted that they will cut spending.

This four-day summer sale starts on Tuesday. The event may provide forecasters with a window to observe consumers' spending intentions and purchasing categories in the context of complex US economic signals. Vivek Pandya, chief analyst at Adobe, said: “Prime Day will provide early signs of consumer demand, particularly in categories where price cuts are expected to be the biggest, such as clothing, electronics, and television.” Adobe expects Amazon and other US retailers to generate $23.8 billion in online sales over these four days.

Trump's announcement of equal tariffs on 180 countries and regions on the so-called “Liberation Day” on April 2 shocked the global market. Although he later suspended the imposition of equal tariffs and negotiated with trading partners, uncertainty was still overshadowed. On Monday, Trump once again ignited this uncertainty. He issued a warning to Japan, South Korea and other countries that if trade agreements are not reached before August 1, tariffs will be imposed on them.

Although economic indicators to date show that American consumers are still resilient, consumers' “smart shopping” behavior in the short term — such as snapping up cars before tariffs take effect — may blur long-term trends. Consumer spending declined slightly in May, while consumer confidence rose in June.

Amazon's Prime Day promotion is expected to provide further clues to consumer trends throughout the summer. Romain Fouache, CEO of e-commerce software company Akeneo, said, “Prime Day will be quite a test.” The company conducted a survey of 1,000 American consumers, and the results showed that a quarter of respondents said they would skip Prime Day because of tariffs, while 57% said they would pay more close attention to price trends.

Consumers aren't the only ones absent. Some online merchants also dropped out of this promotion to receive it. About 60% of products on the Amazon platform come from third-party merchants, and some of these merchants said they are no longer able to offer discounts this year because prices are being raised to offset rising costs due to tariffs.

For example, Andy Lu, CEO of Unilever's brand of air purifiers and humidifiers, Blueair, said the company had to reduce the number of promotional products during this year's Prime Day due to tariffs. According to reports, the brand's filters can cost as much as $300, and usually offered a 30% discount during Prime Day in previous years. Andy Lu said, “We want to be cautious and see how the economy performs in the second half of this year. This year's Prime Day is extremely instructive for brands and operators.”

Amazon declined to comment on how the tariffs would affect Prime Day this year. The company's executives have said that consumers are turning to cheaper products. Meanwhile, CEO Andy Jassy said that tariffs have yet to “significantly” push up prices.

An Amazon spokesperson said in an email statement: “We are working closely with the many unique and valuable sales partners in the store to help them adapt to the evolving market environment while maintaining low prices and rich product choices to meet customer needs.”

It is worth mentioning that Amazon's Prime Day campaign this year has been extended to 4 days, which is directly double that of 2 days in 2024. According to eMarketer's estimates, American consumers will spend nearly 13 billion US dollars on the Amazon platform within these four days, accounting for 75% of all US online spending during this period. By comparison, that percentage was only 59% in 2024, when Prime Day was only two days long. Recently, J.P. Morgan Chase also stated in a research report that although macroeconomic pressure remains the same, strong concessions and extended activity time to 4 days will drive demand growth, and the average daily sales of the event are expected to increase by about 10% over the same period last year.

However, extending the length of a promotion also has its risks. Katie Thomas, head of the Kearney Consumer Research Institute, said, “The 'sense of urgency' originally established by Prime Day is less intense after a longer period of time, and a longer promotion cycle may lead to an increase in the number of abandoned shopping carts.”