Huaxi Securities: Emotional consumer dividends drive the 100 billion IP market expansion and the global layout of leading companies is the key

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huaxi Securities released a research report saying that the emotional consumption dividend (per capita income ↑ + leisure ↑ + intergenerational change) is driving the expansion of the 100 billion IP market, but China is still in the early stages (per capita consumption is 1/60 of the US). Leading companies need to seize growth through IP emotional design (Labubu), cross-media development (park/video), and global layout (Bubble Mart's overseas revenue +375%), while being wary of the risk of single IP dependency (historical fluctuations in Hello Kitty) and insufficient content innovation. Related beneficiaries: Bubble Mart (09992), Bruco (00325), Quantum Song (QSG.US), Mingchuang Premium (09896)

Huaxi Securities's main views are as follows:

Macro-driven: The era of emotional consumption is coming, and the baby boom brings industry growth

Income and leisure time both increased. China's per capita GDP reached 12,600 US dollars (80 times that of 1978), and the country's per capita disposable income surpassed 40,000 yuan (2024) for the first time, driving the shift in the consumer class from physical goods → brand → service → emotional consumption.

The average daily leisure time of urban residents increased by 80% compared to 2019, the share of culture and leisure increased by 18%, and the spiritual consumption rate of high-net-worth people reached 23% (luxury car consumption decreased by 12%).

Urbanization and demographic changes. The rate of urbanization growth slowed to 1.3% (2024), real estate investment fell 10.6% year on year, and consumption accounted for only 55% of GDP (65%-80% in the US, Japan, and South Korea). China's Gen Z group has entered a major consumer period, similar to the historical path of Japan's “Echo Baby Boom” (1962-1972), catalyzing demand for personalized IP.

The domestic market has significant room for growth, and the pattern is scattered

The incremental space is significant. In 2023, the global IP licensing market reached US$356.5 billion (CAGR 5%), leading the growth rate in North Asia (China +9.6%), but China's per capita IP consumption was only 70 yuan (less than 1/4 of the global average, US 4,225 yuan).

In 2024, China's IP retail sales were nearly 100 billion yuan, making it the fourth largest market in the world. The IP toy CAGR is expected to reach 17.2% in 2024-2029.

Competition in mature markets is highly concentrated, and the domestic landscape is scattered. The top 10 global licensors have a monopoly of 68.4% of the share (Disney takes the lead with 62 billion US dollars), and China Bubble Mart (IP toy market share 11.5%) and Aofei Entertainment are among the TOP50.

Bubble Mart accounts for 2.4% of the global toy market, and Labubu IP's annual revenue of 3 billion yuan (accounting for 23% of its total revenue) is the leading engine.

What's the formula for good IP success?

By reviewing the growth history of Labubu and Hello Kitty, the bank believes that the general formula for creating popular IPs is social currency+scarcity and cross-media development, but with reference to some “smash hit” IPs, such as Bearbrick, KAWS, etc., they were co-branded with various classic IPs in the early days and were sold in limited quantities. They became popular IPs in a short period of time. The premium ratio in the second-hand market reached 10-30 times, but excessive scarcity made the life cycle of the product shorter.

Hello Kitty, on the other hand, has been around for 51 years. Thanks to its simple “mouthless” design and “not a cat, not a human” setting, it gave the characters more room for imagination, reduced cultural conflicts, and supported continuous IP operation capabilities, giving the characters a longer life cycle. Hello Kitty has co-branded with brands in various product categories, from apparel, daily necessities, stationery, kitchenware, home appliances, to cultural tourism, airports, parks, etc., from the affordable brand Uniqlo to the luxury brand Gucci, expanding the user circle in various fields and consumer levels. The bank believes that long-term image IP has stronger cross-media development capabilities, which requires a simpler IP design and more room for imagination; for content IP (Disney, One Piece) or toys with greater operability (Gundam, LEGO), it is a continuous output of content (requires a sufficiently large worldview) /the ability to continuously update and iterate products (gameplay iteration), so that consumers can maintain a continuous sense of freshness.

Sorting out the industrial chain and business model — how to grow into an IP giant?

The IP industry chain achieves hierarchical value release through five major links (licensors, agents, licensees, manufacturers, and retailers). As an agent representative, Alibaba Pictures pioneered the IP2B2C model to open up Alibaba's ecological resources and provide brands with one-stop services from IP licensing and design to the supply chain. In 2025, it ranked sixth in the world with authorized retail sales of US$4.1 billion, accounting for 19% of the domestic market share. Bubble Mart, on the other hand, uses social currency (celebrity delivery+blind box scarcity) and cross-media development (paradise, film and television) to drive global expansion. In 2024, overseas revenue accounted for 39%, Southeast Asia/North America grew by more than 500%, and overseas stores were 2.6 times more efficient than mainland China. Bandai uses the “IP axis strategy” to build barriers across the entire industry chain. The three major divisions of entertainment, IP production, and amusement develop more than 20,000 products a year. The top three IPs (Gundum/Dragon Ball/One Piece) contribute 39.8 billion yen in revenue, accounting for 40.5% of overseas sales. The three cases together reveal the core capabilities of IP giants: in-depth operation to solve industry pain points, global layout to seize growth, multiple IP matrices to withstand cyclical risks, and provide a replicable growth path for the industry.

Risk Alerts

Consumer demand fell short of expectations, industry competition intensified, and project implementation fell short of expectations.