J. Front Retailing Co., Ltd. Just Recorded A 94% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
A week ago, J. Front Retailing Co., Ltd. (TSE:3086) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of JP¥111b, some 5.0% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at JP¥41.25, 94% ahead of expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, J. Front Retailing's five analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥449.9b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to crater 26% to JP¥120 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥449.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥124 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
See our latest analysis for J. Front Retailing
The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,054, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic J. Front Retailing analyst has a price target of JP¥2,450 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,900. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting J. Front Retailing is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.4% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 4.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.2% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - J. Front Retailing is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for J. Front Retailing. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that J. Front Retailing's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,054, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple J. Front Retailing analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that J. Front Retailing is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is concerning...
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.