WEBULL

Watsco's (NYSE:WSO) five-year earnings growth trails the solid shareholder returns

Simply Wall St · 07/02 10:39

It hasn't been the best quarter for Watsco, Inc. (NYSE:WSO) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 12% in that time. But that doesn't change the fact that shareholders have received really good returns over the last five years. Indeed, the share price is up an impressive 149% in that time. To some, the recent pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a fast rise. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price.

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

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There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Over half a decade, Watsco managed to grow its earnings per share at 15% a year. This EPS growth is lower than the 20% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:WSO Earnings Per Share Growth July 2nd 2025

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free interactive report on Watsco's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Watsco, it has a TSR of 187% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Watsco shareholders are down 2.1% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 15%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 23% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Watsco you should know about.

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.