Jumia Technologies AG (NYSE:JMIA) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 40% gain in the last month alone. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 38% over that time.
Following the firm bounce in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Jumia Technologies is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 3.7x, considering almost half the companies in the United States' Multiline Retail industry have P/S ratios below 1.1x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.
See our latest analysis for Jumia Technologies
Jumia Technologies hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. Perhaps the market is expecting the poor revenue to reverse, justifying it's current high P/S.. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
Keen to find out how analysts think Jumia Technologies' future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Jumia Technologies' to be considered reasonable.
In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 20%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 20% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 13% as estimated by the dual analysts watching the company. With the industry only predicted to deliver 10%, the company is positioned for a stronger revenue result.
With this in mind, it's not hard to understand why Jumia Technologies' P/S is high relative to its industry peers. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.
Jumia Technologies' P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
As we suspected, our examination of Jumia Technologies' analyst forecasts revealed that its superior revenue outlook is contributing to its high P/S. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/S as they are quite confident future revenues aren't under threat. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Jumia Technologies that you should be aware of.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.