Guohai Securities: Focus on the pace of cost reduction of express delivery companies and their flexibility. Many main lines have layout opportunities

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guohai Securities released a research report saying that in order to reduce terminal costs, express delivery companies initially increased the inbound rate at terminal collection points, to express delivery drivers directly linked to terminal collection points, to today's unmanned vehicles replacing manned vehicles, and the path to cost reduction at the end of the industry is clear. We need to pay attention to the terminal cost reduction stage of various express delivery companies and their actual flexibility in terms of performance; take the franchise-based express delivery company Zhongtong Express - W (02057) as an example, focus on the rate of increase in direct link rate → driverless vehicle penetration rate on the cost reduction and elasticity of a single ticket cost reduction for the whole link; take direct express delivery company SF Holdings (06936) as an example to focus on the penetration rate of unmanned vehicles, and the pace of driving in closed places. In addition, other upstream and downstream investment opportunities for unmanned vehicles are also worth paying attention to. In view of the fact that many main lines in the express delivery industry have layout opportunities, the express delivery industry's “recommended” rating is maintained.

Guohai Securities's main views are as follows:

Background of terminal cost reduction: The scale effect of transit is decreasing, and there is plenty of room for terminal cost reduction

1. Breakdown of the express delivery value chain: In the context of falling industry prices, cost control directly determines profitability, and in the context of the gradual narrowing of transit costs, terminal cost control has become the key to network competitiveness.

2. Cost reduction at the end: Take the franchise express Yuantong Express as an example. Compared with 2013, transport/operation/branch transfer/facial/delivery costs decreased by 70.34%/62.49%/58.39%/91.61%/10.17%, respectively. Terminal delivery costs accounted for 60.64% of the total cost in 2024. This cost accounts for a high proportion and no room for cost reduction has yet been opened. Take direct express delivery company SF Holdings as an example. In 2024, its single ticket labor and capacity costs accounted for 84% of the company's total single ticket costs, and the share was stable from 2020 to 2024. Labor and transportation costs mainly comprised terminal couriers and truck drivers, and the cost reduction space needed to be broken through.

3. The flexibility of terminal costs on performance: Franchise express delivery companies take the profit of each individual ticket in 2024 as an example. If Zhongtong Express/Yuantong Express/Yunda Shares/Shentong Express's single ticket profit increases by 0.1 yuan/ticket (0.1 yuan is only 8% of the average terminal cost of 1.25 yuan), the bank is expected to achieve a performance increase of 34/27/24/23 billion yuan, and the flexibility on performance is 34%/69%/145%/224%, and the performance elasticity is high. If calculated based on SF Express Holdings' revenue in 2024, every 1% decrease in cost and expense ratio of revenue can increase the company's gross profit by nearly 3 billion yuan, and the flexibility to performance is 30%.

4. Terminal cost reduction measures of various express delivery companies: Since there is a lot of room for terminal cost reduction, there is considerable room for improving performance flexibility, so all companies are actively exploring terminal cost reduction methods. Examples include early express delivery points, Zhongtong Express's “Direct Delivery Chain”, Yuantong Express's “No. 1 Project”, SF Express's “network atomization”, and unmanned vehicle delivery that various companies are currently actively experimenting with.

Terminal cost reduction and recovery: from “door-to-door” to “collection point”, from “courier delivery” to “direct driver chain”, from “manned vehicle” to “unmanned vehicle”

1. From “door-to-door” to “collection points”: From 2013 to now, with the advent of terminal collection points, the express delivery inbound rate increased rapidly and peaked under the habit of contactless receipt during the epidemic (the inbound rate of the express delivery industry reached 72% in 2022). The rapid increase in the inbound rate has had a significant effect on reducing terminal costs. Take Yuantong Express as an example. In 2023, its inbound rate reached 71%, and the single ticket delivery cost was reduced to a minimum of 1.16 yuan from 1.30 yuan before 2019.

2. From “courier delivery” to “direct driver chain”: In addition to terminal collection points, terminal direct chain is another innovation in the delivery model for express delivery companies. The principle is to deliver express shipments from couriers to terminal collection points and switch to branch line vehicle delivery, thereby improving terminal inbound efficiency and reducing terminal courier delivery costs. Generally speaking, the courier's delivery cost (delivery fee) is 1.1 yuan/ticket, and under the truck delivery+collection point temporary storage model, the total cost can be reduced to 0.76 yuan/ticket (0.16 yuan/ticket branch line transportation cost +0.60 yuan/ticket temporary storage fee), reducing the cost space by 31%.

3. From “manned vehicle” to “unmanned vehicle”: The transportation cost of a single ticket for a manned vehicle is 0.16 yuan. If an unmanned vehicle is used, the transportation cost of a single express ticket can be reduced to 0.05 yuan, which can save 0.11 yuan/ticket, further reducing terminal costs and reducing the cost space by 69%.

Current status of unmanned vehicle usage and cost reduction estimation: Cost reduction flexibility is considerable, and the pace of promotion is accelerating

Current state of the industry: Due to the remarkable economic benefits of unmanned vehicles, all regions are actively introducing driverless vehicle regulations, improving driverless management in key cities, and continuing to open right-of-way locations. For example, Neolithic, a leading unmanned vehicle company, has obtained more than 250 local and municipal road rights, and all unmanned vehicle companies are expanding production capacity to meet market demand.

Current status of enterprise applications:

Affiliate Express: Zhongtong Express has invested about 1,000 vehicles (as of 2025/06), Yuantong Express has invested nearly 500 vehicles (as of the end of 2024), Yunda Co., Ltd. has invested more than 100 vehicles (as of 2025/02), and Shentong Express has invested more than 200 vehicles (as of 2025/01). Furthermore, in April 2025, Zhongtong Express cooperated with Neolithic and plans to launch 10,000 unmanned vehicles in the future; Jitu Express plans to invest a total of 3,000 additional unmanned vehicles in 2025.

Direct Express: SF Holdings has invested more than 800 vehicles (as of the end of 2024), and Cainiao Express has invested more than 700 vehicles in colleges and universities across the country (as of 2024/07). Furthermore, it is estimated that SF Holdings will expand the scale of unmanned vehicles to 8,000 in 2025.

Flexible calculation of performance:

1. Franchise express delivery company - direct delivery scenario: According to the bank's estimates, if an unmanned vehicle is used, the transportation cost of a single express ticket can be reduced from 0.16 yuan to 0.05 yuan, reducing the cost by 0.11 yuan/ticket, and the cost reduction is as high as 69%.

2. Direct delivery company - direct delivery scenario: According to the bank's estimates, if the participation rate of unmanned vehicles at SF Holdings direct delivery outlets reached 100%, the cost reduction space for a single ticket in the direct delivery model of SF Holdings was 0.11 yuan, and the cost reduction ratio was 0.5% of revenue.

3. Direct-run express delivery company - human-robot collaboration scenario: According to the bank's estimates, if the driverless vehicle's ability to assist in delivery reached half of the courier's delivery volume, SF Express Holdings' human-robot collaboration cost reduction space was 0.23 yuan, and the cost reduction ratio was 1.1% of revenue.

Risk warning:

Risk of industry growth falling short of expectations; risk of price war restarting; risk of management improvements falling short of expectations; risk of cost control falling short of expectations; risk of franchisees breaking out of positions; risk of unmanned vehicle road rights falling short of expectations; risk of unmanned vehicle production capacity falling short of expectations; risk of measurement bias; risk of China's stock market delisting.