Naseej International Trading Company (TADAWUL:1213) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period beforehand. Looking further back, the 24% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.
Following the firm bounce in price, given around half the companies in Saudi Arabia's Consumer Durables industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.1x, you may consider Naseej International Trading as a stock to avoid entirely with its 7x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
Check out our latest analysis for Naseej International Trading
For instance, Naseej International Trading's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Naseej International Trading, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.In order to justify its P/S ratio, Naseej International Trading would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 35%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 35% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.
Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 4.5% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.
With this information, we find it concerning that Naseej International Trading is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
Naseej International Trading's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.
We've established that Naseej International Trading currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Naseej International Trading you should be aware of.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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