China Merchants Securities: AI and unmanned technology focus on implementing stablecoins and RWA financial innovation

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Merchants Securities released a research report saying that investment opportunities in the computer sector in the first half of 2025 mainly focus on the three main lines of AI, unmanned operation, and fintech. The market style is biased towards small market capitalization companies, and the segmentation of topics rotates rapidly. Technological innovation is the main line of growth in 25 years, focusing on AI iterative innovation and investment opportunities in AI computing power, fintech innovation, and the implementation of robot scenarios. With the empowerment of AIGC technology, China's B-side software product capabilities will be greatly improved; scenarios such as unmanned logistics vehicles have taken the lead in commercialization; and the promotion of stablecoin regulation legislation will accelerate its integration with traditional finance.

The main views of China Merchants Securities are as follows:

25H1 Market Review: The three main lines of AI, fintech innovation, and unmanned operation rotate

Looking back at the first half of 2025, I think that investment opportunities in the 25H1 computer sector mainly focus on the three main lines of AI, unmanned operation, and fintech, and that the market style is biased towards small market capitalization companies, and the segmentation of topics rotates rapidly. Looking at the share of the turnover of constituent stocks of the Chinese Stock Exchange in 2000, the share remained high in the first half of '25. The highest climbed to 35% and surpassed the high in November '23. The market's popularity for small-cap stocks reached a new high. Therefore, the first half of the year showed structural characteristics of frequent theme changes. Judging from the Computer (Shenwan) Index, the clear main lines in the first half of '25 were AI industry chain investment opportunities launched by DeepSeek R1 in January-March; and investment opportunities related to financial technology innovation that experienced two rounds of cross-border payments and stablecoin markets; in addition, unmanned logistics vehicles were the first to be commercialized. Unmanned logistics vehicles, unmanned low-altitude logistics, unmanned mine cards, unmanned sanitation vehicles, etc. are also worth paying attention to. The bank once again reiterated that technological innovation has been the main line of growth in 25 years, focusing on AI iterative innovation and investment opportunities in AI computing power, fintech innovation, and the implementation of robot scenarios.

In terms of AI applications, with the continuous iterative upgrading of large models such as DeepSeek, there will be room for significant improvement in B-side AI applications in China

Comparatively analyzing the commercialization progress of AI applications at home and abroad, and considering the reasons, the bank believes that China's C-side AIGC applications are developing rapidly, the number of monthly active users of DeepSeek and Doubao has exceeded 100 million levels, and the product leader is basically defined. AI smart assistants, AI search, AI 2D raw images, and AI directly generated videos have become the most popular AI native scenarios; B-side AIGC applications are developing slowly in the C-side market. The C-side focuses on monetizing traffic, and the B-side places more importance on customer payment intentions. Unlike American companies, which are accustomed to paying high premiums for software services, domestic companies prefer the “hardware+free software” model, which causes the B-side software payment rate and profit margin in China to be low. With the empowerment of AIGC technology, China's B-side software product capabilities will be greatly improved. B-side software may shift from pay-per-function to pay-per-effect. KnowHow's accumulation in the field of enterprise management and vertical segmentation is expected to be combined with AI to achieve product transformation and increase application market space.

The unmanned field focuses on scenarios where commercialization can be implemented more quickly, such as no human flow, Robotaxi, etc.

On June 22, Tesla Robotaxi commenced operation in Austin, Texas, USA, with a single charge of 4.2 US dollars (about 30 yuan). Musk also said that Robotaxi will bring huge profits to Tesla. The fleet can achieve high utilization rates (each vehicle runs for more than 40 hours per week), and the gross margin may be as high as 70%-80%, far exceeding the traditional car business. Tesla Robotaxi's short-term goal is to expand the fleet to 1,000 vehicles within a few months and gradually cover all of Austin. The long-term plan is to expand to California by the end of 2025, enter Europe in 2026, and operate a global fleet of hundreds of thousands of vehicles in 2027. The special model Cybercab is scheduled to be mass-produced in 2026, with a target cost of less than 30,000 US dollars. Chinese companies have been on the Robotaxi circuit for a long time and have become a key force in the commercialization of autonomous driving around the world. In addition, with orders from companies such as Jiushi and Neolithic, the unmanned logistics vehicle scenario was the first to be commercialized. The bank believes that specific application scenarios such as unmanned low-altitude logistics, health care robots, unmanned mine trucks, and unmanned sanitation vehicles are also expected to achieve breakthroughs from 0 to 1 relatively quickly.

Stablecoins are expected to usher in faster development as regulatory legislation progresses, and together with RWA, act as a bridge between traditional finance and Web3

Stablecoins are essentially cryptocurrencies that anchor the value of traditional assets. Initially, they were used as a transaction medium for native cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, then gradually developed into a payment tool for cross-border trade due to their blockchain characteristics. Stablecoins are both open and stable, and have also developed into alternative currencies in some countries with high inflation. As of June 25, '25, the market value of global stablecoins was US$251.1 billion, of which USDT and USDC were worth US$156.7 billion and US$61.7 billion respectively. Recently, the US “GENIUS Act” and Hong Kong's “Stablecoin Bill” have been introduced one after another. Legislation and substantial progress in the industry will drive the development of stablecoins as a key bridge between fiat currency and digital asset ecosystem.

Risk warning: AI application development progress falls short of expectations; AI server supply chain risks; AI chip development falls short of expectations risk; industry competition intensifies; technological innovation falls short of expectations.