Jiumaojiu International Holdings' (HKG:9922) earnings trajectory could turn positive as the stock swells 17% this past week

Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited (HKG:9922) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 20% in the last month. But the last three years have seen a terrible decline. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 87% in the last three years. So it's about time shareholders saw some gains. But the more important question is whether the underlying business can justify a higher price still. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.

Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last three years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.

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While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Jiumaojiu International Holdings saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 45% per year, over the last three years. This fall in EPS isn't far from the rate of share price decline, which was 49% per year. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time, despite the disappointment. In this case, it seems that the EPS is guiding the share price.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

Dive deeper into Jiumaojiu International Holdings' key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Jiumaojiu International Holdings's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

A Different Perspective

Jiumaojiu International Holdings shareholders are down 29% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 34%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 12% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Jiumaojiu International Holdings , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

We will like Jiumaojiu International Holdings better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.