MariTide, the “next generation diet pill”, is expected to welcome a “double-sided breakthrough”! Amgen (AMGN.US) is on the path to revaluation

The Zhitong Finance App learned that American biotech giant Amgen (AMGN.US) will announce complete clinical data on the “next generation weight loss drug” MariTide in obesity indications at the American Diabetes Association (ADA) annual meeting to be held on June 23, 2025. The trial was conducted for 52 weeks on obese or overweight patients without type II diabetes. Although management said that the top line data released in November 2024 already covered most of the key data, Goldman Sachs expects this full data disclosure to still be an important upward catalyst for Amgen and the entire diet medicine sector. Amgen will be able to provide details and insights not covered in the previous summary data.

Goldman Sachs said in a newly released research report that the results of a phase I pharmacokinetic dose escalation study on MariTide will also be released at the same time, and these new data are expected to further clarify the clinical characteristics of MariTide. Goldman Sachs expects MariTide to achieve a “two-sided breakthrough” — that is, a major breakthrough in the balance between the huge potential of weight loss drugs and clinical controversy, so Goldman Sachs maintains a “buy” rating for Amgen shares while assigning a target price of $400, which means that, according to the Goldman Sachs analyst team, Amgen's stock price has an upward potential of about 40% compared to the current position in the next 12 months.

Goldman Sachs believes that Amgen is expected to embark on a value revaluation trajectory under major catalysts related to the “next generation weight loss drug” MariTide, and that there may be more room for its share price to rise compared to its peers. Goldman Sachs said that Amgen's current PE forecast for 2025, which is only 14x, is significantly lower than the average value (22x) of the biotech sector in which it is located, and the target price of 400 US dollars is about 40% upward for the company's stock price.

Specific details that the Goldman Sachs analyst team is most concerned about about the “next generation weight loss drug” MariTide include:

Weight loss efficacy: Weight loss effects of MariTide in different dosage groups (including weight loss in the gradual dose regimen group and additional clinical data for other dosage frequency groups).

Safety and tolerability aspects: The incidence of adverse events in different dosage groups and their changes over time (the proportion and timing of adverse reactions at each dose need to be further clarified). The Goldman Sachs analysis team paid particular attention to the occurrence and mitigation trends of gastrointestinal adverse reactions in various programs.

Market positioning: Market positioning as a long-lasting weight loss drug (especially in primary care at the primary level). Goldman Sachs believes MariTide, with its lower dosage frequency and milder clinical side effects, is expected to take a unique leading position in the treatment of obesity, and looks forward to receiving more clarification in this regard from upcoming data.

Phase III clinical plan: Strategy and timeline for the recently launched MariTIDE phase III program (the company plans to conduct further outcome studies in the area of obesity-related complications, such as cardiovascular outcome trials).

Production and supply capacity: Change the company's production capacity investment in MariTide manufacturing (given the long-term bottlenecks that companies in the same industry have previously experienced in the supply of obesity drugs, Goldman Sachs is particularly concerned about how Amgen can ensure supply to meet potential large-scale demand).

Goldman Sachs said that MariTide's efficacy and tolerability characteristics in the field of obesity have attracted much attention even after the publication of top-line data. On the one hand, the drug achieved an average weight loss of close to 20% at 52 weeks (with no significant plateau period), and its efficacy has surpassed the current level of leading weight loss treatments (such as Eli Lilly's tiverpotide, trade name: Zepbound, and Novo Nordisk's simeglutide injections, trade name: Wegovy). However, on the other hand, a high proportion of gastrointestinal adverse reactions were reported at the beginning of the trial.

However, according to Goldman Sachs's interpretation, these gastrointestinal events were mainly mild and mostly occurred during the initial administration phase; as the dose gradually increased, the incidence of related adverse reactions decreased significantly. This magnitude of improvement in gastrointestinal tolerance is a positive sign of future clinical acceptance of MariTide. If MariTide can rely on the convenience of monthly administration and ensure good safety and tolerability, and at the same time match or even surpass existing treatments (such as Zepbound, Wegovy) in terms of weight loss efficacy, then Goldman Sachs believes it is expected to receive huge commercial returns and occupy an important position in the obesity and type 2 diabetes treatment market, and may reshape the treatment pattern in these fields.

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects data from the maintenance phase II trial of the MariTide Obesity Indications Phase II trial (part 2, additional 52 weeks) to be revealed in the second half of 2025. It is expected that this partial result will clearly define the potential effect of the drug during the phase of weight maintenance without rebound. Given the data currently available, Goldman Sachs is optimistic about MariTide's performance in long-term ongoing treatment. The 104-week long-term follow-up data for this maintenance phase will also help answer unanswered questions about the durability of efficacy and long-term safety. Furthermore, MariTide's phase II clinical trial in patients with type 2 diabetes is ongoing, and Goldman Sachs expects the relevant data to be released in the second half of 2025. If the results are positive, MariTide is expected to expand the indications to the T2D field and further expand its potential market.

Goldman Sachs is also paying close attention to other important research data in the field of obesity. In addition to MariTide's own test results, the ADA conference and in the near future will also announce a number of important studies in the field of obesity. The Goldman Sachs analyst team is also paying close attention, mainly including:

Eli Lilly: Complete data on the Ph3 ACHIEVE-1 study (oral GLP-1 receptor agonist orforglipron) on obesity indications (expected to be released in the second half of 2025). It is worth mentioning that Eli Lilly announced the topline results of the phase III trial of Orforglipron for T2D patients last month.

Novo Nordisk: Complete data from the Ph3 REDEFINE 1 and 2 studies (CagrisEMA combination therapy, trial in adults with obesity).

Eli Lilly: Results data from the Ph2 BELIEVE study (examining the effects of bimagrumab in obessive/overweight people without diabetes).

Novo Nordisk: Results data from the Ph3 SOUL study (cardiovascular outcome test with oral simeglutide for T2D patients).

Novo Nordisk: Test results of phase I b/IIa “Amycretin” drug (a monomolecular agonist acting simultaneously on GLP-1 and insulin receptors) in obesity indications.

Eli Lilly: Proof-of-concept outcome data for phase I eloralintide medications (selective long-acting insulin receptor agonists for obesity).