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The total return for NHPC (NSE:NHPC) investors has risen faster than earnings growth over the last five years

Simply Wall St · 06/15 02:15

Buying shares in the best businesses can build meaningful wealth for you and your family. And we've seen some truly amazing gains over the years. To wit, the NHPC Limited (NSE:NHPC) share price has soared 332% over five years. If that doesn't get you thinking about long term investing, we don't know what will. It's also good to see the share price up 11% over the last quarter. But this move may well have been assisted by the reasonably buoyant market (up 14% in 90 days).

Although NHPC has shed ₹33b from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

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In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, NHPC achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 0.8% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 34% average annual increase in the share price. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
NSEI:NHPC Earnings Per Share Growth June 15th 2025

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of NHPC's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Portfolio Valuation calculation on simply wall st

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of NHPC, it has a TSR of 439% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Investors in NHPC had a tough year, with a total loss of 14% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 1.0%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 40%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for NHPC you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.

But note: NHPC may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Indian exchanges.