J.P. Morgan notes that the US unexpectedly doubled aluminum tariffs to 50% last week, which has brought huge uncertainty to the industry. The 50% tariff does not seem to be fully reflected in the premium of aluminum prices in the Midwest region of the US compared to the price of aluminum in London. Although existing US stocks can form a short-term buffer, they will soon be exhausted. Aluminum premiums in both regions seem to be paralyzed given the uncertainty over whether the 50% tariff will eventually be lifted, or whether key exemptions will ease the pressure.

J.P. Morgan notes that the US unexpectedly doubled aluminum tariffs to 50% last week, which has brought huge uncertainty to the industry. The 50% tariff does not seem to be fully reflected in the premium of aluminum prices in the Midwest region of the US compared to the price of aluminum in London. Although existing US stocks can form a short-term buffer, they will soon be exhausted. Aluminum premiums in both regions seem to be paralyzed given the uncertainty over whether the 50% tariff will eventually be lifted, or whether key exemptions will ease the pressure.