SPDB International: The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles continues to rise rapidly, and the intelligent incremental parts industry chain is rising rapidly at the same time

The Zhitong Finance App learned that SPDB International released a research report saying that in the second half of this year, sales in China's new energy passenger car industry will maintain rapid growth. Annual sales are expected to reach 15.25 million units, an increase of 24% over the previous year, corresponding to a penetration rate of 53.3%. Driven by policies such as “two new” at the beginning of the year, many new car companies achieved improvements in gross margin in the process of expanding the scale of sales growth, which led to a significant increase in the visibility of the break-even balance on the car side.

In the first quarter of this year, the penetration rate of L2++ intelligent assisted driving achieved a breakthrough of zero in the price range below 100,000 yuan, which led to rapid growth in the scale of the incremental components industry for intelligent assisted driving. At the same time, the decline in incremental component costs will further promote the penetration of intelligent assisted driving into the Volkswagen model market. This will drive rapid growth of smart driving SoCs, lidars, smart driving tier 1, sensors, etc. this year.

SPDB International's main views are as follows:

China's NEV passenger vehicle sales are expected to reach 15.25 million units in 2025, corresponding to a penetration rate of 53.3%

In the second half of this year, the sales volume of China's new energy passenger vehicle industry will maintain rapid growth. Annual sales are expected to reach 15.25 million units, an increase of 24% over the previous year, corresponding to a penetration rate of 53.3%. Driven by policies such as “two new” at the beginning of the year, many new car companies achieved improvements in gross margin in the process of expanding the scale of sales growth, which led to a significant increase in the visibility of the break-even balance on the car side. At the same time, car companies are steadily expanding in many overseas regions, further deepening the global layout of Chinese car companies.

Looking further, under the impetus of BYD (01211), intelligent assisted driving in the NEV industry quickly penetrated into models priced between 100,000 and 200,000 yuan this year. This will promote the growth in demand in the NEV industry and benefit various segments of the smart assisted driving industry, such as lidar, smart driving chips, smart driving tier 1, etc.

The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in China has accelerated, the supply of high-quality products has increased, and competition is still high

The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in China increased rapidly from 6.1% in 2020 to 44.6% in 2024. From 2021 to 2024, the penetration rate increased by 9.2, 12.5, 6.9, and 10 percentage points, respectively. The penetration rate is expected to reach 53.3% this year, an increase of 8.7 percentage points. The supply of high-quality models in the industry is still increasing, covering the NEV passenger vehicle segment and demand. Looking forward to the next performance of the Xiaomi YU7, Xiaopeng P7+/SUV, NIO Ledao L60, Ideal Pure Electric SUV, and Zero Run B10. The sales growth of Zero Run (09863) and Xiaopeng Motor (09868) is highly certain this year, and at the same time, profit improvement/break-even balance is highly visible, making them the first choice for the NEV industry.

The penetration rate of intelligent assisted driving has increased dramatically, and the intelligent incremental parts industry chain has skyrocketed at the same time

At the beginning of this year, under the strong impetus of BYD, intelligent assisted driving quickly penetrated into models with a price range of 100,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan. According to the NE era, the NOA load rate of passenger cars in China reached 18.9% in March 2025, with significant year-on-year and month-on-month increases, and the rate of penetration is increasing rapidly. In the first quarter of this year, the penetration rate of L2++ intelligent assisted driving achieved a breakthrough of zero in the price range below 100,000 yuan, which led to rapid growth in the scale of the incremental components industry for intelligent assisted driving.

At the same time, the decline in incremental component costs will further promote the penetration of intelligent assisted driving into the Volkswagen model market. This will drive rapid growth of smart driving SoCs, lidars, smart driving tier 1, sensors, etc. this year. Among them, in the second half of this year, automotive lidar will continue to accelerate its penetration into the middle and low end with cost-effective products, superimposing the middle and high-end models of some car companies to move towards “standard for all systems”, which is expected to drive profit improvements for major players in the industry. HSAI.US (HSAI.US)'s lidar sales growth and profitability are highly deterministic, making it the first choice for the smart driving incremental parts industry.

risk factors

The macroeconomic environment, such as global tariff policies, affects terminal demand and industrial chain fluctuations; China's NEV penetration rate is slowing down and does not rise as planned; overseas NEV demand falls short of expectations; the penetration rate of intelligent assisted driving in the Volkswagen market falls short of expectations, and the growth of smart driving incremental components is weak; industry competition intensifies, and the price war heats up again, dragging down the sales and gross margin performance of car companies; the overseas layout of Chinese car companies is slower than expected; autonomous driving R&D is falling short of expectations, and the spread of ultra-high voltage fast charging is falling short of expectations.